U.S. Intel sees “a story with no clear outcome”
November 21st, 2008 by Jim Just“The international system—as constructed following the Second World War—will be almost unrecognizable by 2025 owing to the rise of emerging powers, a globalizing economy, an historic transfer of relative wealth and economic power from West to East, and the growing influence of nonstate actors.”
Thus begins Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, the fourth installment in the National Intelligence Council-led effort to identify key drivers and developments likely to shape world events a decade or more in the future.
Gone is the hubris of the last assessment done just four years ago, which predicted that the U.S. would continue to dominate a world and a global economy growing exponentially, becoming 80% larger by 2020 with average per capita income 50% higher than in 2000.
Now, while the report’s authors “do not believe that we are headed toward a complete breakdown of the international system, as occurred in 1914-1918 when an earlier phase of globalization came to a halt,” they see “the next 20 years of transition to a new system” as being “fraught with risks.” Global warming will be felt, and water, food and energy constraints may fuel conflict over resources. The current financial crisis as “just the first phase of a global economic reordering,” and the U.S. dollar’s role as the world’s major currency will weaken to become a “first among equals.”
The overall theme of the report is that the United States will have less influence across the globe at a time of growing climate, water and energy stresses. A future of unrelenting growth and progress has become “a story with no clear outcome” - in just four short years.
Now that is progress.