Energy outlook: dire
June 11th, 2007 by Jim JustMatthew Simmons has produced a 54-slide PowerPoint presentation that lays out the energy challenges the U.S. and the world faces over the coming decades. Energy consumption rose at a breathtaking rate over the 20th century, based primarily on fossil fuels. If even the conservative estimates of the EIA are to be met, supplies will have to increase by a staggering amount to meet demand projected by 2030. For a century the U.S. has been the world’s biggest consumer of energy Just 30 years ago, the U.S. was the world’s biggest energy supplier of energy. Now the U.S. is the world’s biggest importer, dependent for its energy lifeblood on distant, shaky, or unfriendly suppliers. Our energy vulnerability would not be a serious issue if demand for energy was barely growing, if Middle East supply was still bountiful and very cheap, if major importers had friendly and reliable long-term supply contracts, and if global infrastructure to deliver “long-distance energy†was new. But none of these “ifs†are true—and the world faces a true crisis. The true if global energy demand faces exponential growth and the global supply of oil and natural gas is peaking. Demand is too young, and supply and infrastructure too old. U.S. EIA oil supply models show (and reports at the Oil Drum support) that global crude oil production reached its all-time high in 2005 and that it may have already peaked. If risks are ignored, “chaos†is most the likely result as demand outstrips supply, shortages lead to hoarding—and bullies will get oil first. If well formulated coping plans are established, we may be able to forge a transition can occur: Such plans must be global in scale, will have to depend on technology we now have, and will have to be sold by proving oil and gas is peaking. Conservation is highest quality new energy supply, and oceans may provide our biggest and most pleasant energy surprise.