The myth of permanence: post-peak infrastructure maintenance
August 6th, 2007 by Jim JustWe don’t yet know the exact cause of the Minnesota bridge collapse. Some suggest it may be related to renovations the bridge was undergoing, others cite possible structural failure due to corrosion and increased weight of trucks and other vehicles, and there’s even the suggestion that it may be related to global warming. The Minneapolis bridge disaster is no isolated incident but a warning signal: more than 160,000 road bridges in the USA are considered to be in danger of collapse; 77,000 share the same “structurally deficient†rating as the one that collapsed over the Mississippi in Minnesota. Most of these bridges, along with the bulk of the nation’s highway system, were built 40 to 50 years ago in the 1950s and 1960s. The U.S. was then at the peak of its prosperity and power. It was the world’s dominant industrial power and oil producer. U.S. oil production peaked in 1970, and we outsourced our manufacturing might in the ’80s and ’90s. Now our infrastructure is ageing and approaching the end of its useful life—and we don’t have the billions of dollars needed to replace the bridges—and highways, tunnels, dams and dikes—and oil infrastructure—that are also threatened or in miserable condition. Dams—especially as they age, and especially in climates that are cold and subject to extreme seasonal variation—require significant ongoing maintenance and regular inspection. There are about 80,000 dams in the U.S., the majority over fifty years old. Fifty years used to be considered the average life expectancy for dams. The vast majority of North American dams are not being maintained effectively today, many not even regularly inspected. Even if we were to disregard the evidence that nuclear is simply not a feasible option quantitatively or economically, one of the powerful arguments against building more nuclear power plants is that a society in decline will simply no longer have the resources to maintain ageing nuclear infrastructure. Decades or centuries from now, who will want or be able to and maintain ageing or no longer functioning reactors and monitor nuclear waste disposal sites, especially if people are struggling with simply trying to figure out how to survive? Today, our most popular tourist destinations include the abandoned infrastructure of ancient, collapsed civilizations. Are we willing to wager that the U.S., the nation-state system, and western-type civilization will—unlike all civilizations that have preceded us—survive and maintain themselves for hundreds and even thousands of years? Is it moral or responsible to leave future generations holding that bet?