Sea levels could rise up to 2 meters by 2100
September 5th, 2008 by Jim JustRealClimate reports the first paper to really try and assess the future limits on dynamic ice sheet loss appeared in Science this week. Pfeffer et al looked at the exit glaciers for Greenland and West Antarctica and made some back of the envelope calculations of how quickly the ice sheets could dynamically drain.
Good news: they rule out more than 2 meters of sea level coming from Greenland alone in the next century.
Bad news: they can’t rule out up to 2 meters in total.
Estimates for the number of people who would be affected by 1 meter of sea level rise are more than 100 million – mainly in Asia. Gustav’s storm surge in New Orleans saw waves lapping over the top of the levees. Another little bit of sea level rise would have done New Orleans in, again.
Hmmm, and what about the West Antarctic ice sheet?
Note too, that sea level rise is very much a lagging indicator, and will continue for centuries past the time that atmospheric temperatures have stabilized – if they do.