ONE TOWN SQUARE: at the intersection of peak oil, climate change, and land use

In preparation for the upcoming climate change talks in Copenhagen in December, an international scientific congress on climate change convened in Copenhagen in March 2009. Approximately 2500 researchers came together to present new knowledge that has emerged since the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report was published in 2007.

The Synthesis Report summarizing the presentations at that conference has now been released. The Report contains this stark warning:

The scientific evidence has now become overwhelming that human activities, especially the combustion of fossil fuels, are influencing the climate in ways that threaten the well-being and continued development of human society. If humanity is to learn from history and to limit these threats, the time has come for stronger control of the human activities that are changing the fundamental conditions for life on Earth.

The Report carries the following messages that, if ignored, mean the end of the Earth that has succored human life:

• Greenhouse gas emissions and many aspects of the climate are changing near the upper boundary of the IPCC range of projections. Many key climate indicators are already moving beyond the patterns of natural variability within which contemporary society and economy have developed and thrived. These indicators include global mean surface temperature, sea-level rise, global ocean temperature, Arctic sea ice extent, ocean acidification, and extreme climatic events. With unabated emissions, many trends in climate will likely accelerate, leading to an increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts.

• Societies and ecosystems are highly vulnerable to even modest levels of climate change, with poor nations and communities, ecosystem services and biodiversity particularly at risk. Temperature rises above 2°C will be difficult for contemporary societies to cope with, and are likely to cause major societal and environmental disruptions through the rest of the century and beyond.

• Rapid, sustained, and effective mitigation based on coordinated global and regional action is required to avoid dangerous climate change. Weaker targets for 2020 increase the risk of serious impacts, including the crossing of tipping points, and make the task of meeting 2050 targets more difficult and costly.

• Climate change is having, and will have, strongly differential effects on people within and between countries and regions, on this generation and future generations, and on human societies and the natural world. Tackling climate change is integral to enhancing equity throughout the world.

• If we do not deal effectively with the climate change challenge, adaptation to the unavoidable climate change and the societal transformation required to decarbonize economies will not be achieved.

• If the societal transformation required to meet the climate change challenge is to be achieved, the inertia in social and economic systems must be overcome.

I fear entrenched interests will prove too powerful, people will prove too deeply committed to their worship of wealth and “progress”, and societal inertia will prove to be too great to overcome. We are witnessing the greatest tragedy in the history of humans’ time on Earth unfold before our eyes.