Electric cars could make global warming worse
November 12th, 2009 by Jim JustA new report by the European group Transport & Environment titled “How to avoid an electric shock: Electric cars from hype to reality” finds that while there may be significant potential environmental benefits to be had from a switch to electric vehicles, the supposed benefits are wholly dependent on changes in the way electricity is generated, energy is taxed and CO2 emissions are regulated. Current EU legislation contains loopholes that are likely to lead to emissions and oil use going up rather than down.
Why is this? Binding EU targets for car CO2 emissions agreed last December include ‘super credits’ that enable carmakers to sell up to 3.5 gas-guzzling SUVs for every electric vehicle they sell and still reach their official EU target. Electric cars are also counted as ‘zero emissions’ despite the fact that the electricity they use can come from high-carbon fossil fuels such as coal. The combined effect of these loopholes would be that carmakers that choose to market electric cars to meet EU targets would have to do less to reduce emissions of conventional cars. The overall effect would be higher CO2 emissions and oil use.
The report says electric cars can help reduce CO2 emissions from the transport sector provided two conditions are met: first, they must be more energy-efficient than state-of-the-art conventional vehicles on a ‘tank to wheel’ basis; second, the electricity to power the cars must be sourced from renewable sources.
The first of these conditions appears to have been met: electric vehicles are between two and three times more efficient than petrol hybrid and advanced diesel vehicles on a ‘tank-to-wheel’ basis.
The second condition, which depends on ‘well-to-wheel’ environmental impacts, is far from guaranteed, as it depends on the type of electricity generation. Electric cars powered by wind or solar energy are obviously superior. But if the electricity comes from coal, hybrids perform better.
The extra electricity required to power electric vehicles will require increased generating and grid capacity, which will require investment in the power sector. Even if the grid has the capacity and the basic infrastructure to meet the needs of electric cars, the new demand patterns they will create may result in greater use of coal and nuclear power.
And then there’s Jevons paradox. While the initial cost of acquiring an electric vehicle is high, the operating costs are low, with fuel savings ultimately fully compensating for the higher up-front expense. Low operating costs of electric vehicles would encourage people to drive more, especially since the initial purchase price is a “sunk cost.” These effects would result in extra demand for car transport. To offset this effect, it would be necessary to tax electricity. Meters in cars would be needed to measure the amount and environmental quality of electricity used [how "environmental quality" might be measured is left a mystery].