What will power post-industrial society?
November 19th, 2009 by Jim JustA new study concludes that wind, solar photovoltaic, concentrating solar thermal, geothermal, wave and tidal have the best net-energy performance and offer the best prospects for supplying society’s energy needs – but cautions all of these have challenges, including intermittency, remoteness of good resources, materials needed for large-scale deployment, and scale potential. The bottom line is this:
Contrary to the hopes of many, there is no clear practical scenario by which we can replace the energy from today’s conventional sources with sufficient energy from alternative sources to sustain industrial society at its present scale of operations.
The study warns that conventional energy sources such as oil, gas, coal and nuclear, “are either at or nearing the limits of their ability to grow in annual supply, and will dwindle as the decades proceed but, in any case, they are unacceptably hazardous to the environment.”
The report, Searching for a Miracle: Net Energy Limits & the Fate of Industrial Society, was published by the International Forum on Globalization with content provided by the Post Carbon Institute. The report is said to be “the first major analysis to use the new research tools of full lifecycle assessment and net energy ratios to compare future scenarios for how industrial society can face its long term future.”
The report asked the basic question: Can any combination of known energy sources successfully supply society’s energy needs at least up to the year 2100?
And the answer:
It is reasonable to conclude . . . that a full replacement of energy currently derived from fossil fuels with energy from alternative sources is probably impossible over the short term; it may be unrealistic to expect it even over longer time frames.
The easiest way to replace our current energy sources – while at the same time reducing greenhouse gas emissions – is to use less energy. Maxine Savitz, a member of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, says the energy efficiency gained through new technologies in buildings, cars, and industry could reduce energy use as much as 30% by 2030.
That wouldn’t get us very far. A 30% gain in energy efficiency would only be enough to offset projected growth in energy consumption through 2030.
Political leaders have yet to come to grips with the question, what will follow “industrial society at its present scale of operations”?