The Copenhagen Diagnosis: warning from scientists to politicians
November 25th, 2009 by Jim Just“The Copenhagen Diagnosis: Climate Science Report” has been released as a lead-up to the global climate talks to be held in Copenhagen next month.
The intent of the 26 scientists who participated in drafting the report was to bring the IPCC 2007 Working Group 1 report up to date with the latest science. The report and a summary are available for download here.
The report warns that global emissions need to peak between 2015 and 2020 and then decline rapidly if catastrophic climate change is to be avoided.
Here are some of the points made in the report:
- Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels in 2008 were nearly 40% higher than those in 1990.
- Over the past 25 years temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.190C per decade, in very good agreement with predictions based on greenhouse gas increases.
- Both the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets are losing mass at an increasing rate. Melting of glaciers and ice-caps in other parts of the world has also accelerated since 1990.
- Summer-time melting of Arctic sea-ice has accelerated far beyond the expectations of climate models.
- Sea-level rise (3.4 mm/yr over the past 15 years) is 80% above past IPCC predictions, consistent with a doubling in contribution from melting of glaciers, ice caps and the Greenland and West-Antarctic ice-sheets.
- By 2100, global sea-level is likely to rise at least twice as much as projected. Sea-level will continue to rise for centuries even if global temperatures are stabilized. Sea levels will inevitably rise by several meters over the next few centuries.
- Vulnerable elements in Earth’s climate system could be pushed past irreversible “tipping points” if warming continues unabated.