Peak oil, peak autos
January 25th, 2010 by Jim JustIn 2009, cars scrapped in the U.S. exceeded new car sales for the first time since World War II, shrinking the U.S. vehicle fleet from the all-time high of 250 million to 246 million.
The 14 million cars scrapped exceeded the 10 million new cars sold, shrinking the U.S. fleet by 4 million, or nearly 2% in one year. The U.S. fleet has apparently peaked and started to decline.
Lester Brown at Treehugger identifies “market saturation” as the dominant factor. The United States now has 246 million registered motor vehicles and 209 million licensed drivers – nearly 5 vehicles for every 4 drivers.
Brown points to Japan as an example. In Japan, annual car sales peaked 1990 and have since shrunk by 21%.
Mish Shedlock looks at the data and asks, what about boomer demographics and teenage driving?
The massive wave of boomer retirement is about to hit. Many boomers will go from two cars to one, or from two new cars to one new car and an “emergency” clunker.
As for teens, parents can no longer afford to buy cars for their kids. And with teenage unemployment at the highest rate in history, teens can no longer afford to buy their own cars.
Peak oil, peak autos. What’s next?