ONE TOWN SQUARE: at the intersection of peak oil, climate change, and land use

Battered by extreme heat, drought & fire, Russia bans grain exports

August 9th, 2010 by Jim Just

Battered by record heat and a drought that has destroyed millions of hectares of crops, Russia – the world’s third largest wheat exporter – has banned grain exports.

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announced:

In connection with the unusually high temperatures and the drought, I consider it right to impose a temporary ban on the export from Russia of grain and other products produced from grain.

Putin said Russia’s policy after December 31 would be determined by the results of the harvest. Russia has slashed its 2010 grain harvest forecast to 70-75 million tonnes, compared with a harvest of 97 million tonnes in 2009.

The record heat and drought have spawned widespread wildfires. Peat bog fires outside Moscow have shrouded the capital in smog. Wheat prices have soared as Russia sizzles.

Jeff Masters at Wunder Blog reports the Russian population affected by extreme heat is at least double the population of Moscow, which is just over ten million; and the death toll in Russia from the 2010 heat wave is probably at least 15,000, and may be much higher. The only comparable heat wave in European history occurred just seven years ago in 2003, and killed an estimated 40,000 – 50,000 people, mostly in France and Italy.

A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year’s heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Masters observes this is the worst heat wave in Russian history:

Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow’s history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past two weeks. Temperatures the past 27 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow. Alexander Frolov, head of Russia’s weather service, said in a statement today, “Our ancestors haven’t observed or registered a heat like that within 1,000 years. This phenomenon is absolutely unique.”

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev says its time to face up to the reality of climate change:

None of us can say what the next summer will be like. The forecasts vary greatly. Everyone is talking about climate change now. Unfortunately, what is happening now in our central regions is evidence of this global climate change, because we have never in our history faced such weather conditions in the past. This means that we need to change the way we work, change the methods that we used in the past.”

Fat chance of that happening, here. No matter what the evidence, it’s business as usual, pursue growth at any cost, and let the future take care of itself.

Update: Peak Oil News has posted this great graphic showing the distribution of fires:

Scientists are saying the record heat wave in Russia and the deadly heat and flooding in Asia may become the norm rather than the exception. The Peak Oil News piece quotes Professor Michael Mann, a noted paleo-climatologist researcher:

The record heat waves we’re seeing this summer aren’t simply a random event in isolation. They are embedded in the warmest 6 month period the globe has seen in the instrumental record spanning the past 150 years. And a wealth of paleoclimate evidence suggests that the past few decades are the warmest period in at least a thousand years, and perhaps much longer.

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