ONE TOWN SQUARE: at the intersection of peak oil, climate change, and land use

Dr. Jeff Masters at WunderBlog reports that both the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route are now open. Data at the University of Illinois site Cryosphere Today shows it is now possible to completely circumnavigate the Arctic Ocean in ice-free waters – and this will probably continue to be the case for at least a month.

This year marks the third consecutive year–and the third time in recorded history–that both the Northwest Passage and Northern Sea Route have melted free, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

The Northeast Passage opened for the first time in recorded history in 2005, and the Northwest Passage in 2007. It now appears that the opening of one or both of these northern passages is the new norm.

Here’s an updated graphic:

As this graphic from Chris Mooney’s article in New Scientist shows, ice volume has been decreasing even more precipitously than ice area.

The average volume of Arctic ice between July and September has fallen from 21,000 cubic kilometres in 1979 to 8000 cubic kilometres in 2009, a 55% decline compared with the 1979 to 2000 average. This is even faster than the decline in ice extent, which is 40% below the long-term average.

Not only has the total volume of Arctic ice continued to decline since 2007 considerably more quickly than predicted by most climate models, the rate of loss is accelerating. The Arctic Ocean may soon be essentially ice-free during the summer months. The dark ocean waters, mostly devoid of ice, would then absorb still more sunlight, further warming the overlying atmosphere during an increasingly lengthy ice-free season, reshaping weather throughout the region and well beyond it.

A good friend recently asked me why I give so much attention to news about Arctic sea ice extent at this blog, saying he just glosses over posts on this subject.

Here’s the reason: the area of sea ice cover is an important, amplifying climate feedback. Loss of sea ice is a cause of concern because as the area of ice decreases, increased absorption of sunlight by the darker ocean causes more sea ice melting. As this graph from Makiko Sato & James Hansen’s new blog shows, Arctic sea ice extent has been declining steadily . . .

. . . as has sea ice volume. What ice remains is getting thinner.

It’s not just sea ice that is melting. Ice sheets are shrinking too, both in Greenland and in Antarctica.

And the ice loss over the last few years has been at a time of minimum solar irradiance. Solar irradiance is now once again on the upswing.

It seems likely that September Arctic sea ice may be all but gone within a few decades – or perhaps even sooner. What does less Arctic sea ice mean for Earth’s weather patterns?

NASA is predicting loss of summer sea ice will mean more severe winter storms in the northern hemisphere – a prediction which is already being borne out.

Following Arctic sea ice extent is fascinating because it shows that global warming is not something to worry about in the future. Global warming is here and now, and is already affecting us in our daily lives. What’s worrisome is that the impacts will only get more severe. By the time the impacts are bad enough to get our attention, it will be too late – the damage will already have been done. Under the best-case scenario it will take Earth a thousand years or more to recover. Under the worst-case scenario, Earth will flip into a different, stable climate regime which won’t be hospitable to human existence.

Scientists predict in a new study that fewer than one in five of the plants and animals which currently live in the world’s rainforests will still be here in 90 years time. The culprits? Climate change and deforestation.

The study, “Correlative and mechanistic models of species distribution provide congruent forecasts under climate change”, is published in the June edition of Conservation Letters, an open-access journal. Here’s the abstract:

Good forecasts of climate change impacts on extinction risks are critical for effective conservation management responses. Species distribution models (SDMs) are central to extinction risk analyses. The reliability of predictions of SDMs has been questioned because models often lack a mechanistic underpinning and rely on assumptions that are untenable under climate change. We show how integrating predictions from fundamentally different modeling strategies produces robust forecasts of climate change impacts on habitat and population parameters. We illustrate the principle by applying mechanistic (Niche Mapper) and correlative (Maxent, Bioclim) SDMs to predict current and future distributions and fertility of an Australian gliding possum. The two approaches make congruent, accurate predictions of current distribution and similar, dire predictions about the impact of a warming scenario, supporting previous correlative-only predictions for similar species. We argue that convergent lines of independent evidence provide a robust basis for predicting and managing extinctions risks under climate change.

By 2100, climate change and deforestation could have altered two-thirds of the rainforests in Central and South America and about 70% in Africa. The Amazon Basin alone could see changes in biodiversity for 80% of the region.

A U.K. Telegraph article about the study quotes Daniel Nepstad, senior scientist at the Woods Hole Research Center, which studies climate change in Massachusetts:

This study is the strongest evidence yet that the world’s natural ecosystems will undergo profound changes including severe alterations in their species composition through the combined influence of climate change and land use. Conservation of the world’s biota, as we know it, will depend upon rapid, steep declines in greenhouse gas emissions.

Battered by record heat and a drought that has destroyed millions of hectares of crops, Russia – the world’s third largest wheat exporter – has banned grain exports.

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announced:

In connection with the unusually high temperatures and the drought, I consider it right to impose a temporary ban on the export from Russia of grain and other products produced from grain.

Putin said Russia’s policy after December 31 would be determined by the results of the harvest. Russia has slashed its 2010 grain harvest forecast to 70-75 million tonnes, compared with a harvest of 97 million tonnes in 2009.

The record heat and drought have spawned widespread wildfires. Peat bog fires outside Moscow have shrouded the capital in smog. Wheat prices have soared as Russia sizzles.

Jeff Masters at Wunder Blog reports the Russian population affected by extreme heat is at least double the population of Moscow, which is just over ten million; and the death toll in Russia from the 2010 heat wave is probably at least 15,000, and may be much higher. The only comparable heat wave in European history occurred just seven years ago in 2003, and killed an estimated 40,000 – 50,000 people, mostly in France and Italy.

Masters observes this is the worst heat wave in Russian history:

Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow’s history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past two weeks. Temperatures the past 27 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow. Alexander Frolov, head of Russia’s weather service, said in a statement today, “Our ancestors haven’t observed or registered a heat like that within 1,000 years. This phenomenon is absolutely unique.”

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev says its time to face up to the reality of climate change:

None of us can say what the next summer will be like. The forecasts vary greatly. Everyone is talking about climate change now. Unfortunately, what is happening now in our central regions is evidence of this global climate change, because we have never in our history faced such weather conditions in the past. This means that we need to change the way we work, change the methods that we used in the past.”

Fat chance of that happening, here. No matter what the evidence, it’s business as usual, pursue growth at any cost, and let the future take care of itself.

Update: Peak Oil News has posted this great graphic showing the distribution of fires:

Scientists are saying the record heat wave in Russia and the deadly heat and flooding in Asia may become the norm rather than the exception. The Peak Oil News piece quotes Professor Michael Mann, a noted paleo-climatologist researcher:

The record heat waves we’re seeing this summer aren’t simply a random event in isolation. They are embedded in the warmest 6 month period the globe has seen in the instrumental record spanning the past 150 years. And a wealth of paleoclimate evidence suggests that the past few decades are the warmest period in at least a thousand years, and perhaps much longer.

Above: cumulative annual area changes for 34 of the widest Greenland ice sheet marine-terminating outlets. Source: Byrd Polar Research Center.

Location of the successive calving fronts of the Jakobshavn Isbrae glacier between 1851 and 2009, overlain on a Landsat image from 7/29/2009. Source: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio. Historic calving front locations courtesy of Anker Weidick and Ole Bennike, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released the 2009 State of the Climate report, which concludes the scientific evidence that our world is warming is unmistakable. The past decade was the warmest on record and that the Earth has been growing warmer over the last 50 years.

Human society has developed for thousands of years under one climatic state, and now a new set of climatic conditions are taking shape. These conditions are consistently warmer, and some areas are likely to see more extreme events like severe drought, torrential rain and violent storms.

Deke Arndt, co-editor of the report and chief of the Climate Monitoring Branch of NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, is quoted in NOAA’s press release:

The temperature increase of one degree Fahrenheit over the past 50 years may seem small, but it has already altered our planet. Glaciers and sea ice are melting, heavy rainfall is intensifying and heat waves are more common. And, as the new report tells us, there is now evidence that over 90 percent of warming over the past 50 years has gone into our ocean.

Regarding warming oceans, the report says warming has been observed as far as 6,000 feet below the surface, but most of the heat is accumulating in the oceans’ near-surface layers. The implications of a warming ocean are considerable. First, because water expands as it warms, ocean heating is responsible for much of the observed sea-level rise (melting of land-based ice is responsible for the rest). Further, the oceans will hold the heat they’ve accumulated because they warm and cool much more slowly than air – meaning the impacts of warming will continue to be felt long after greenhouse gas emissions peak and begin to decline, should humans ever manage to muster the wisdom and the will to make that happen.

June 2010 was the hottest June since widespread weather recording began, according to the National Climatic Data Center.

June 2010 was the fourth consecutive month with reported warmest averaged global land and ocean temperature on record (March, April, and May 2010 were also the warmest on record). June 2010 was the 304^th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20^th century average.

The combined global average land and ocean surface temperature for the January–June period was the warmest such period on record, 0.68°C (1.22°F) above the 20^th century average.

Jeff Masters at Wonder Blog reports nine countries have smashed all-time temperature records so far in 2010:

]S]ix nations in Asia and Africa set new all-time hottest temperature marks in June. Two nations, Myanmar and Pakistan, set all-time hottest temperature marks in May, including Asia’s hottest temperature ever, the astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) mark set on May 26 in Pakistan. Last week’s record in Russia makes nine countries this year that have recorded their hottest temperature in history, making 2010 the year with the most national extreme heat records.

This graph shows how global temperatures have been rising over the past 100 years:

The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) reports the rate of ice loss in the Arctic slowed in the first half of July, primarily because of a change in atmospheric circulation as the dipole anomaly, an atmospheric pattern that dominated the Arctic in June, broke down.

The report explains:

Through much of May and June, high pressure dominated the Beaufort Sea with low pressure over Siberia. Winds associated with this pattern, known as the dipole anomaly, helped speed up ice loss by pushing ice away from the coast and promoting melt.

However, the dipole anomaly pattern broke down in early July. In the first half of July, cyclones (low pressure systems) generated over northern Eurasia tracked eastward along the Siberian coast and then into the central Arctic Ocean, where they tend to stall. This cyclone pattern is quite common in summer. The low-pressure cells have brought cooler and cloudier conditions over the Arctic Ocean. They have also promoted a cyclonic (anticlockwise) sea ice motion, which acts to spread the existing ice over a larger area. All of these factors likely contributed to the slower rate of ice loss over the past few weeks.

In the last few days, high pressure has started to build again in the Beaufort Sea, but whether this will continue remains to be seen.

Still, Arctic sea ice extent at this time is the second lowest ever recorded, as seen in this chart from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency website, IJIS.

Nobody “official” – no country, no established economic research institute, no international organization (such as the IMF) – appears willing to entertain any notion or to publicly discuss scenarios that don’t plan for a return to stable economic (GDP) growth.

But then there’s the non-establishment Institute for Integrated Economic Research – which is unafraid to think the unthinkable.

The IIER suspects the odds of business-as-usual coming to an end are pretty high.

Nate Hagens at The Oil Drum: Campfire suggests it might be entertaining and perhaps even enlightening to begin asking our politicians, what will you do if growth is over?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports the global combined land and ocean surface temperature average for May was the warmest on record. The globally averaged temperature for both land and ocean surfaces was 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20^th century average of 14.8°C (58.6°F).

May 2010 Blended Land and Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in degrees Celsius

The combined global land and ocean surface temperature during March–May 2010 was 14.4°C (58.0°F) and ranked as the warmest such period on record, 0.73°C (1.31°F) above the 20^th century average of 13.7°C (56.7°F).

March 2010 – May 2010 Blended Land and Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in degrees Celsius

The warmest anomalies occurred over eastern and northern North America, eastern Brazil, northern Africa, eastern Europe, and southern Asia. See the deep red dots along the land masses of the Arctic and in southern Greenland and the eastern U.S. and Canada. Anomalously cool conditions were present over eastern Asia and the western United States.

Looks to be a long, hot summer.

May Global Hemisphere plot

It’s approaching the end of June, and Arctic sea ice is continuing to melt precipitously.  Arctic sea ice is shrinking at a record pace both in extent . . .

. . . and in volume:

We’ve never seen anything like current conditions in the historical record.

Global temperatures are currently setting records again.  According to NOAA’s monthly state of the climate report, May was the hottest May during the instrumental record, and Jan-May 2010 was the hottest Jan-May period on record.

As you can see, things are really heating up in the Arctic.

Looking back to 1880, the increase in global temperatures is striking.

An all-time record high temperature record for Asia was set on June 1 in Pakistan’s Indus Valley, the cradle of an ancient civilization: 53.7C (129F).

Only Al ‘Aziziyah, in Libya (57.8C in 1922), Death Valley in California (56.7 in 1913) and Tirat Zvi in Israel (53.9 in 1942) are thought to have been hotter.

Jeff Master reports at Wunderblog:

Last week’s heat wave killed at least 18 Pakistanis, and temperatures in excess of 50°C (122°F) were recorded at nine Pakistani cities on May 26, including 53°C (127.4°F) at Sibi.

Record heat also hit Southeast Asia in May. According to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu. Myanmar’s previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Mr. Burt, the 47°C (116.6°F) measured on May 12 this year is the hottest temperature measured in Southeast Asia in recorded history.

As seen in this map posted by Paul Kadrosky, the record-smashing heat wave is widespread throughout Asia:

James Hansen reports the global temperature this year reached its warmest on record based on a 12-month-rolling average:

Record high global temperature during the period with instrumental data was reached in 2010. As for the calendar year, it is likely that the 2010 global surface temperature in the GISS analysis also will be a record.

NOAA says the combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the warmest on record for both April and for the period from January-April.

Additionally, last month’s average ocean surface temperature was the warmest on record for any April, and the global land surface temperature was the third warmest on record.

April 2010 was the 302nd consecutive month with average global surface (land + ocean) temperature above the 20th century average.  The last month with an average global surface (land + ocean) temperature below the 20th century average was February 1985 -  over 25 years ago.

Rising temperatures are being felt in the Arctic. While Antarctic sea ice extent in April was near average, just 0.3 percent below the 1979-2000 average, Arctic sea ice extent has been plunging in May. The pace of ice extent decline is now catching up to the record-setting pace set in 2007. The record low minimum extent occurred September 16, 2007.

While Arctic ice extent in 2008 and 2009 failed to reach the record low of 2007, Arctic ice volume continues to decline year over year.

The record low for Arctic ice volume set in September 2009 at 5,800 km^3 or 67% below its 1979 maximum (for the period 1979-2009).

Things are warming up in the incubator of hurricanes, too.

Jeff Masters explains the significance at WunderBlog:

When SSTs [sea surface temperatures] in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 85°W) were an eye-opening 1.46°C above average during April. This is the third straight record warm month, and the warmest anomaly measured for any month–by a remarkable 0.2°C. The previous record warmest anomalies for the Atlantic MDR were set in June 2005 and March 2010, at 1.26°C.

The high April SST anomaly does not bode well for the coming hurricane season. The three past seasons with record warm April SST anomalies all had abnormally high numbers of intense hurricanes. Past hurricane seasons that had high March SST anomalies include 1969 (0.90°C anomaly), 2005 (1.19°C anomaly), and 1958 (0.97°C anomaly). These three years had 5, 7, and 5 intense hurricanes, respectively. Just two intense hurricanes occur in an average year. The total averaged activity for the three seasons was 15 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 intense hurricanes (an average hurricane season has 10, 6, and 2.) Both 1958 and 2005 saw neutral El Niño conditions, while 1969 had a weak El Niño.

The SSTs are already as warm as we normally see in July between Africa and the Caribbean[.]

The current El Niño is fading fast – a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected by June 2010. Hurricanes may soon be piling on to the Gulf’s oil woes.

Andrew Rivken at the New York Times asks, is last year’s drop in U.S. CO2 emissions a blip or a trend?

According to the EIA report U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions in 2009: A Retrospective Review, U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions fell by 7.0% last year. The downturn of the economy was responsible for only 2.4% of that reduction.

Population, per capita GDP, energy intensity of the economy, and carbon intensity of the energy supply all contribute to emissions. The only factor that increased in 2009 was population, by 0.9%. The remaining three factors – GDP, energy intensity, and carbon intensity – combined in roughly equal proportions to cause emissions to fall by 7.0%

The financial crisis hit the industrial sector of the economy the hardest, and energy usage by industry correspondingly fell the most – by 9.9%. Output from energy-intensive industries such as primary metals (-33.9%) and nonmetallic minerals (-17.4%) fell much faster than total industrial production, reflecting the fact that we’re outsourcing such production at the same time the service sector has been growing relative to the industrial sector of the U.S. economy. Also, carbon intensity fell due to fuel switching as the price of coal rose 6.8% from 2008 to 2009 while the comparable price of natural gas fell 48% on a per Btu basis.

But where CO₂ emissions occur doesn’t matter to the climate system. The fact that U.S. emissions (or those of other developed nations) are falling doesn’t matter much if those emissions are merely being “exported” elsewhere, primarily to China. And we’re exporting more than industrial production – we’re exporting energy and carbon intensity, as well. The result? China has now overtaken the U.S. to become the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases – and shows no sign of easing off. Coal is the basis of the Chinese economy, fueling over 80% of electricity generation. China’s already-enormous coal consumption – now three times U.S. consumption – is still growing, for example at an astonishing rate 28.1% from first quarter 2009 to first quarter 2010.

Even if falling U.S. emissions are a trend and not just a recession-related blip, falling U.S. emissions mean nothing if global emissions continue to rise.

As Gail the Actuary points out at The Oil Drum, what can’t happen, won’t:

Combine unprecedented consumption levels with furious growth rates and you quickly arrive at absurdities and impossibilities. As in, it won’t happen. The wheels will fall off the wagon first.

Reducing emissions will require reducing the production of “stuff” – and not only in the U.S., but also around the world. Global economic shrinkage is the only way out of our climate predicament, and our current focus on economic growth will have to be replaced by concern with economic justice.

Limited supplies of fossil fuels mean that “economic growth” as we know it will come to an end, sooner or later, whether we like it or not. The question that remains to be answered is, before the wheels do come off, will we have already set the world on a path to unstoppable warming? Or will we accept the inevitable and act in time to save the ecosystem that sustains us?

The focus of public and policy debate about the climate change impact of food has mostly been on transport.  “Food miles” has become shorthand for thinking about the climate change impact of food. But food system related emissions  result not only from the transport of food. Emissions also result from the conversion of land for farming, the process of farming itself, the energy used in food processing and retail, and from food waste.

A new report from Britain titled Local food and climate change – the role of community food enterprises looks at all stages of the supply chain. Using a life cycle analysis, the report takes into account emissions impacts at all stages, from agricultural production (and its associated inputs) through to processing, packing, transport, retailing, home storage and preparation, and final disposal. Its conclusion: carefully designed local food networks can reduce greenhouse gas emissions in every part of the food chain.

Farming itself is a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions. Agriculture is a major source of methane, which is many times more powerful as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide (methane is 25 times more potent than CO2 over a 100 year time horizon but 72 times as potent over 20 years); and nitrous oxide, which is 296 times more powerful. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that agriculture is responsible for 13.5% of emissions worldwide. If the connection between deforestation and agriculture is taken into account, farming’s contribution to causing climate change rises considerably. In Latin America, for example, about 70% of previously forested land in the Amazon is used as pasture, and feed crops cover a large part of the reminder. Deforestation is responsible for just under 18% of emissions around the world.

Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture arise both from the process of farming itself and from the production of inputs such as fertilizers, fuel for machinery, energy for heating and materials, and animal feed. The process by which fertilizer is produced is both energy intensive (generating carbon dioxide) and results in the production of the powerful greenhouse gas nitrous oxide. Emissions arise from land use change as soils are disturbed, vegetation destroyed and forests cut down. Farming practices are closely intertwined with the use of external inputs. Conserving soil carbon through methods such as conservation agriculture, organic farming, integrated nutrient management, cover cropping, agroforestry and the use of biochar not only reduces emissions from the soil but also conserves soil nutrients and reduces the need for fertilizers.

The emissions impacts of raising livestock, both direct (livestock raised on recently converted land) and indirect (the raising of crops such as soybeans and corn for animal feed) are significant: in Britain, meat and dairy consumption is responsible for 58% of food-related emissions; and globally, livestock are estimated to account for 70% of agricultural land use (30% of the Earth’s land surface) and more than half of the greenhouse gas emissions attributable to agriculture.

In assessing emissions from the food transportation system, how close food is produced to its point of consumption proves to be far from the only factor. Route planning, loading, the timing of deliveries compared with traffic and vehicle efficiency are all factors in road freight emissions. And reducing emissions from transport is not just about reducing the distance that food travels between the supplier and the retailer – transport between the retailer and the customer is even more important. It is no use reducing emissions associated with transporting food from the farm to retail, only for the good work to be undone by longer or more frequent shopping trips by car.

Emissions reductions from more efficient transport can be undone by higher emissions from storage, packaging and processing of food products. The best way to reduce emissions from food processing is to reduce the extent to which food is processed at all. But this takes thought – if processing reduces the need for later cooking or refrigeration, or uses food that would otherwise go to waste, it is unlikely that eliminating processing in favor of fresh produce would reduce overall greenhouse gases. Refrigeration is a big culprit, contributing to climate change both because of the energy used to operate the equipment and because of the impact of refrigerant gases, which are thousands of times more potent than carbon dioxide. And the interactions among refrigeration, packaging, food transport, food product innovations and various socio-economic developments have helped create cultural norms and practices that are highly energy-dependent. For example, take out-of-season consumption of fruits and vegetables. It may be less greenhouse gas-intensive to ship fruit and vegetables from Mexico or South America during the winter than to produce them locally in heated greenhouses. Similarly, emissions associated with storing apples for many months or keeping foods frozen can more than make up for the transport emissions saved by not bringing them from around the world. People have gotten used to having most foods to be available throughout the year. Slashing emissions from our food systems requires that we once again learn to live with seasonal variations.

If greenhouse gas emissions from the food system are to be reduced significantly, we will need to change the balance of the food we eat. A lower impact diet is seasonal, largely based on food that comes from plants, and can include some meat and dairy products grown to high environmental standards. Eating less – in particular, less factory-farmed meat and poultry – would be an effective way to reduce total greenhouse gas emissions.  And, as a bonus, we would be healthier for it.

The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) reports while Arctic sea ice extent throughout April was near the 1979 – 2000 average (and the highest in the past decade), much of the ice is full of open areas (called pulynyas); much of the thicker, multi-year ice has been pushed south along the coast of Greenland toward the warm waters of the North Atlantic where it will melt during the summer; and Arctic air temperatures have remained persistently warmer than average throughout the winter and early spring season.

During April, Arctic sea ice extent declined at a steady pace, remaining just below the 1979 to 2000 average. Ice extent for April 2010 was the largest for that month in the past decade. At the same time, changing wind patterns have caused older, thicker ice to move south along Greenland’s east coast, where it will likely melt during the summer. Temperatures in the Arctic remained above average.

The very late maximum ice extent, on March 31, means that the melt season started almost a month later than normal. This graph shows that ice extent has now begun to plunge.

The Polar Science Center at the University of Washington reports total Arctic ice volume for March 2010 was the lowest over the 1979-2009 period and 38% below the 1979 maximum.