ONE TOWN SQUARE: at the intersection of peak oil, climate change, and land use

How I baked myself out of a bread oven

March 11th, 2010 by Jim Just

This is a guest post by Irina Just.

Readers of Jim’s blog are fully aware that we’ve been planning to build an outdoor brick bread and pizza oven because we simply couldn’t get any home-made bread to come out the way we like it: chewy, stretchy on the inside and very crusty on the outside.

And of course, it wasn’t available in any store here, in our area. The closest we ever came was the La Brea sourdough baguette which we used to buy by the dozen, frozen, from our Lebanon Roth’s grocery store and bake as needed. When Roth’s closed its Lebanon store, there went that source.

I experimented with any and all recipes I could find, collected from friends, the Internet and my old recipe files. I sprayed the oven to create steam, I worked quickly, I kneaded diligently – and it seemed that I worked with a new recipe every week, either with or without my sourdough starter. Not a single one was satisfactory. The breads were good, but they didn’t have the texture I wanted to achieve.

My last resort was an outdoor brick bread oven, fired with wood, to be used once a week for pizza, bread, and chicken (in that order = the order of available heat).

Then one evening we were at our friends Linda and Robert’s house in Scio for dinner. Linda fixed coq au vin. We brought bread and our own wine to contribute, Robert shared his wine. The conversation centered around food and focused on bread. When I was done lamenting my unsatisfactory loaves, Linda asked, “Why not try no-knead bread? It’s easy, and results in a bread that sounds just what you’re looking for.” Now why I hadn’t heard about no-knead bread before? The very next day I dove in – and ended up baking myself right out of a bread oven.

It is an amazing, and amazingly simple recipe. It doesn’t require any fancy equipment, elaborate preparations or muscle power. All you do is mix in a bowl3 cups flour with ¼ tsp instant yeast, 2 tsp salt and 1 5/8 cup lukewarm water, using a wooden spoon or rubber spatula.

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Cover the bowl with plastic wrap and let sit in a warm place (warm room temperature, out of any draft) somewhere between 14-20 hours. I place mine on a shelf above our woodstove.

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The dough then looks pretty spongy and wet.

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Coat your fingers with flour, lift the dough on a floured surface and fold over twice. Cover with plastic, let sit for 15 minutes, and then shape the dough into a ball, using enough flour on your hands to handle the still very sticky dough. Put the ball on the kitchen counter or a cutting board, seam down; sprinkle with more flour, cover loosely with plastic and then with a towel, and let sit on the kitchen counter for up to 2 hours.

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During the last 30 minutes start the oven by preheating it to 450 degrees Fahrenheit and put a Dutch oven or any baking dish with a lid inside the oven, so the dish can get hot also. When the oven and the dish are heated, take your dough and place it inside the dish.

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Put the lid on and bake for 30 minutes. After 30 minutes, remove the lid.and bake your bread for another 20-30 minutes. Take the bread out of the oven and take or turn it out of the pan to cool a bit (if you can wait!).

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THAT’S IT!

Try not to eat the whole loaf all at once (I put on a whole pound after the first 2 loaves). It is very crusty outside, perfectly chewy inside and has those big holes that we all identify with “hearth, artisan” bread.

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If you can get bread like this out of an ordinary kitchen oven that can be fired up every day with the turn of a knob, why go through the expense and effort of building a specialized bread oven that, because of the cost and effort of heating with a wood fire, you’d probably only use a couple times a week at most?

If your dish is round, your loaf will be (somewhat) roundish (free style); using an oblong dish will obviously change the shape. I’ve been searching for more shapes with lids, since the lid is the secret to the dish creating its own steam oven.  I have found one great website – www.breadtopia.com, headquartered in Iowa. They carry a round and an oblong clay baker, called La Cloche, a version of the German popular Römertopf. I ordered the oblong clay baker as the round one is on back order right now.

In my e-mail I had asked about the lead-time for that and Eric, the owner of Breadtopia, called me on the phone within minutes of my query and answered my questions personally.  And I got email confirmation that my order had shipped, the very same day. I’m so impressed with this outstanding customer service that I want to spread the word.

Meanwhile, I’ve been experimenting with different types and various ratios of flour:

  1. All 3 cups bread flour (King Arthur is the best, I think).
  2. 1 ½ cups bread flour – 1 ½ cup hard white winter wheat ground myself with my flour mill, from a friends’ farm just outside Albany.
  3. 2 cups of my own milled flour and 1 cup bread flour.
  4. And even all 3 cups of my own milled flour.

The results were all good, but the No. 2 version of equal amounts of bread flour and my own milled flour were the best – chewy inside, hard crusty outside, a bit heavier (because of the whole wheat) but not too dense. Next I will experiment with using my sourdough starter as a portion of the dough. Lessen the amount of water to achieve the same texture should theoretically work. Stay tuned!

February – springtime in the greenhouse

February 22nd, 2010 by Jim Just

A few days of blue skies and warm sunshine is all it takes to turn one’s thoughts to spring.

Over the last week of clear weather, temperatures have been cool at night – like in the low twenties – but have been getting up to the low or even mid-sixties during the day. In the greenhouse, minimums are in the low forties, with maximums reaching the low seventies. Time to plant seeds!

Two weeks ago I planted seeds left over from last year: the first batch of lettuces, and herbs – parsley, chervil, cilantro. Those seeds have already sprouted. As soon as the plants are big enough, they’ll be set out in cold frames, where we’re still harvesting lettuces planted last fall.

This weekend, after a seed-buying expedition to Nichols in Albany, it was an orgy of planting. Six types of lettuces: Australian Yellow, Black-Seeded Simpson, Flashy Butter Oak, New Red Fire, Red Velvet, and our old favorite Merlot. Artichokes, to replace any that may not have survived the brutal cold of early December (at least some old plants show signs of new growth, too soon to know how many). Two new varieties of cabbages – Megaton and Stonehead – to expand on last year’s very successful experiment with sauerkraut. Cauliflower: Snow Crown and Cheddar. Lemon cucumbers. Tomatoes: Oregon Spring, Siletz (would have planted Legend, but I proved to have saved an empty seed packet). Peas, snap and sugar pod. Winter squash – Cornell’s Bush Delicata, our favorite (I know, it seems awfully early, but you catch the planting bug . . . ). And flowers! Sunflowers, pansies, violas, nasturtiums, all in several varieties and mixes. All to be set out at the appropriate time.

Even with all this planting, the greenhouse isn’t even near full. No more seed trays in the windowsills in the house!

Seedling trays

We got a whole selection of commercial-grade seed trays in various plug sizes from Yarnell’s Red Barn nursery in Stayton – for a mere dollar each. The planting mix we made ourselves, from compost run through our Steinmax chipper-shredder.

Garlic, onions, and shallots have been in the ground since last fall. Oops, forgot the leeks! Put that on the list for the next visit to Nichols, along with Legend tomato seeds and doubtless a few others we’ve overlooked.

Over the weekend we raised the borders of the herb garden and added several inches of compost. Got the raspberries pruned, and dug up a couple of dozen plants to give away to friends.

Now comes the true test of the greenhouse, to see if we can sprout all these seeds with no heat other than from passive solar gain, and no protection from cold other than thermal mass and insulation.

Oil giant sees oil peak in 2010

February 6th, 2010 by Jim Just

Sergio Gabrielli, CEO of Petrobras (a Brazilian multinational energy company headquartered in Rio de Janeiro), says global oil production (including biofuels) will peak in 2010 due to oil capacity additions from new projects being unable to offset world oil decline rates.

Gabrielli points out in his presentation that the world will need to produce oil from new sources equivalent to one Saudi Arabia every two years to offset future world oil decline rates – which he sees at about 5% per year.

Finding and bring to production the needed magnitudes of new oil simply not going to happen. Even managing to maintain historically observes decline rates may prove to be a challenge. Take Nigeria, for example. As the world teeters at the edge of economic and political collapse,  Nigeria seems to be going over the edge. Nigeria, which in 2008 produced over two million barrels of sweet crude a day and today provides 9% of U.S. oil imports, could vanish as an oil exporter, virtually overnight. Despite its enormous reserves, Venezuela is looking none to stable as a producer and exporter, either.

Chris Nelder takes a close look at Mexico, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia and warns the oil export crisis has arrived – we just haven’t felt it yet:

[W]hen oil prices rise again, the pain will be far greater for the U.S. than it is for our top suppliers. Next time, the spear of declining oil exports will puncture a lung.

If the gap between demand and supply shown in the chart above cannot be filled with new supply, the only alternative is for prices to increase to reduce demand to equal supply: “demand destruction.”  That means economic shrinkage rather than growth, and a consequent financial crisis of epic proportions. consequence we are going to find it harder to extract other energy and mineral resources. As George Mobus points out in a post at The Oil Drum, our net energy is already in decline and that is at the root of the global economic problems we are seeing. You cannot have a growing economy when the basis of all economic wealth production is in decline.

The economic tremblings we’ve seen over the last couple of years may prove to be mere foreshocks. No matter how many trillions we throw at the problem, all the king’s horses and all the king’s men won’t be able to put Humpty Dumpty back together again.

Rather than try to save the irretrievably lost, we’ll have to accommodate ourselves to the new reality:

We can only start simplifying our societies and giving up the many discretionary expenditures of energy that we currently enjoy without much thought. We can learn to once again live on real-time solar influx via our food raising systems. And even then we are talking about an ability to support only a small fraction of the current population. Ironically the simplification of society involves the increasing complexity of individual lives. What this means in practice is that each individual must start to become more of a generalist in terms of the functions that support life. Everyone will have to become a food grower! Believe it or not that isn’t simple! Knowing how to grow your own nutrients is actually quite complicated and will demand a whole new set of cognitive skills.

For the environment, peak oil and economic collapse offers a glimmer of hope. For example, oil accounts for 43% of our CO2 emissions from energy use. Consequent economic collapse will mean that a lot of coal plants in the works will never get built, and maybe even we’ll see existing plants begin to wither away.

What will power post-industrial society?

November 19th, 2009 by Jim Just

A new study concludes that wind, solar photovoltaic, concentrating solar thermal, geothermal, wave and tidal have the best net-energy performance and offer the best prospects for supplying society’s energy needs – but cautions all of these have challenges, including intermittency, remoteness of good resources, materials needed for large-scale deployment, and scale potential. The bottom line is this:

Contrary to the hopes of many, there is no clear practical scenario by which we can replace the energy from today’s conventional sources with sufficient energy from alternative sources to sustain industrial society at its present scale of operations.

The study warns that conventional energy sources such as oil, gas, coal and nuclear, “are either at or nearing the limits of their ability to grow in annual supply, and will dwindle as the decades proceed but, in any case, they are unacceptably hazardous to the environment.”

The report, Searching for a Miracle: Net Energy Limits & the Fate of Industrial Society, was published by the International Forum on Globalization with content provided by the Post Carbon Institute. The report is said to be “the first major analysis to use the new research tools of full lifecycle assessment and net energy ratios to compare future scenarios for how industrial society can face its long term future.”

The report asked the basic question: Can any combination of known energy sources successfully supply society’s energy needs at least up to the year 2100?

And the answer:

It is reasonable to conclude . . . that a full replacement of energy currently derived from fossil fuels with energy from alternative sources is probably impossible over the short term; it may be unrealistic to expect it even over longer time frames.

The easiest way to replace our current energy sources – while at the same time reducing greenhouse gas emissions – is to use less energy. Maxine Savitz, a member of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, says the energy efficiency gained through new technologies in buildings, cars, and industry could reduce energy use as much as 30% by 2030.

That wouldn’t get us very far. A 30% gain in energy efficiency would only be enough to offset projected growth in energy consumption through 2030.

Political leaders have yet to come to grips with the question, what will follow “industrial society at its present scale of operations”?

Wall Street: “institutional manifestation of evil”

October 30th, 2009 by Jim Just

David Korten, speaking at the recent Economics of Peace Conference in Sonoma, California, says our economic system has not only failed – it’s evil, and deserves to die:

So what is real wealth? We might say it is anything that has a real intrinsic value: land, labor, knowledge, food, education.

Most valuable of all are those forms of wealth that are beyond price: Love, a healthy, happy child, a job that provides a sense of self-worth and contribution, membership in a strong caring community, a healthy vibrant natural environment, peace—none of which find any place on Wall Street balance sheets or in our calculations of GDP.

Pull back the curtain, as the financial crash has done, and the truth is revealed that Wall Street acquires its power by destroying real living wealth to create phantom financial wealth. Wall Street is more than immoral, it is an institutional manifestation of evil.

The full text of Korten’s speech was published in Yes Magazine. A one-page version is not available, so you have to click through five pages (most annoying!). The excerpt quoted about is found on the second page.

Korten argues that our economic and political systems no longer work for or protect the public interest:

From the late 70s onward, Wall Street market fundamentalists mobilized to roll back the rules to unleash a consolidation of corporate power and de-link it from public accountability. Their right-wing social-engineering experiment allowed Wall Street to colonize the Main Street economy, decimated the middle class, undermined democracy and sense of community, reduced our national happiness index, and brought financial, social, and environmental devastation wherever it has reached.

Korten pleads for an economic system based on three foundational principles: ecological balance, shared prosperity, and living democracy; and for a shift from a “production-oriented” measurement system to one focused on the well-being of current and future generations.

Bring down Wall Street? Fat chance. But then again, who could have imagined that the Soviet Union would collapse and disappear, virtually overnight?

Moving into Winter on the farm

October 23rd, 2009 by Jim Just

With the greenhouse project done, it’s time to put it to use. We’re going to try growing tender herbs (chervil, parsley, cilantro, even basil) over winter, and experiment with tomatoes.

In the past, I’ve been using our own compost for planting seeds. Everything goes into the compost pile: food scraps, garden waste, grape stems and pomace. Turn it over once, and a year later it’s transformed itself into beautiful rich, black, and crumbly soil. Our compost bin is to the right in this photo.

Compost bin

That’s composted bedding straw from the sheep barn on the left, under cover to keep it from getting saturated over winter.  It will go into the garden and vineyard next spring.

I got some used seedling trays, cheap, from the Red Barn Nursery in Stayton. Perfect for starting seedlings for transplant into larger containers as they grow. But the compost as it comes out of the bin is a little too coarse than it ought to be for starting seeds. I tried putting it in a blender, but that didn’t work. The solution: a big blender, in the form of a Steinmax 1800 electric chipper/shredder.

Steinmax

The Steinmax 1800 sold in 1986 for $230. I found one on Craigslist for $75. It needed a bit of refurbishing – welding, hammering, patching, rewiring, lubricating, painting. The results?

Planting soil

Beautiful stuff, the texture and color of coffee grounds.

We used to have a big, gas-powered chipper/shredder, thinking that we’d shred plant material before it went into the compost bin. But that didn’t work well, it was too much work, and the machine was hard to start and noisy to run. We soon sold it. But after a year of composting, the course compost (fine for amending soil in the garden as is) slides readily into the maws of the shredder. Letting all the heavy lifting happen by itself in the compost bin is definitely the way to go. Do seeds like it? See for yourself.

Seedlings

We’re still getting fresh peas out of the garden, despite repeated frosts and rains. Here’s how.

Peas

A similar cold frame will enable us to harvest lettuces all winter – as long as the gophers don’t move in.

Lettuces

Cabbage never tasted so good

October 8th, 2009 by Jim Just

We experimented with Brassica for the first time in our garden this year – cauliflower, broccoli, Brussels sprouts, cabbages – with mixed success.

The cauliflower – yellow, purple, and white – ripened first, and all at once. What do you do with all that cauliflower?  But the orange-yellow and beta carotene rich  Cheddar was particularly flavorful and delicious.

We discovered deer love broccoli and brussels sprouts. We were lucky to eke out enough for a couple of meals. For next year, we have an idea for a portable deer fence, made with steel T-posts and 6? welded wire mesh (normally used to reinforce concrete). The fence would be cheap, light, and easy to move around as needed and to get out of the way when not needed. Portable fencing could keep the deer away from the peas and beans, as well.

The cabbage was a total triumph, yielding a dozen or so huge heads. We made a little slaw. But I’m not crazy about coleslaw, and how much can you eat anyway while the cabbage is still fresh? So with the last half dozen heads, we determined to try preserving the cabbage as sauerkraut.

Sauerkraut is finely shredded cabbage that has been fermented by various lactic acid bacteria, including Leuconostoc, Lactobacillus, and Pediococcus. No special culture of lactic acid bacteria is needed because these bacteria already are present on raw cabbage.  Traditionally fermented sauerkraut has lots nutritional value, as it contains beneficial digestive enzymes and lactic acid bacteria and is high in vitamin C. (There may be an added bonus, as well. A study by nutritionist Lejla Kazinic Kreho at King’s College found that sauerkraut is as effective as Viagra at increasing sexual function.)

Sauerkraut has a long shelf life and a distinctive sour flavor, both of which result from the lactic acid that forms when the bacteria ferment the sugars in the cabbage. The name comes directly from the German, which literally translates to sour cabbage. Sauerkraut is traditional throughout northern and central Europe, where it provided a vital source of important nutrients during the winter before the days of refrigeration and global food transport.

We borrowed an 8-gallon ceramic crock from friends Jan and Pete, scanned the net for a look at kraut recipes (like here, here, and here), and got to work. Sterilize the crock. Shred the cabbage. Toss with kosher salt. Throw the shredded cabbage in the crock. Tamp firmly – the punch down we use for wine worked perfectly – and as the cabbage was really fresh out of the garden, it was almost instantly submerged in its own juices, safe from oxygen. Cover with a food-grade plastic lid that luckily fit snugly in the crock. Weigh down with a plastic bag filled with water that also served to seal out air. And put in the root cellar, to wait for six weeks or so.

Six weeks later it’s October, and the kraut should be about ready. Serendipitously, Irina’s cousin Doris and her Mann Bernd arrived from Germany. Who better to consult about actually cooking the stuff?

Berndt said his favorite recipe was with Polish sausage. Slice and brown the sausages. Add julienned onions. Cook with the kraut for about a half hour.

Doris told a story of Irina’s mother’s favorite, a dish that Doris would often cook for her when visiting her in Darmstadt. Cut some big – like 2? – cubes of nice fatty speck (bacon that’s cured but not smoked). Brown a bit, then add onions and cook until soft. Add the kraut, then simmer gently for a couple of hours. Mother was in heaven.

So we tried a fusion – sauerkraut with sausages and speck. We had some speck from Michael at the Pepper Tree Sausage House, and we used his bratwurst, as we didn’t have any of his Polish sausages lying around. Bernd first did the pork belly bit, then add the browned sausages for the last half hour of simmering.

The result was a revelation. The sauerkraut was tangy, tasty, and crisp, and the meats were tender and rich. Accompanying the main dish were mashed Yukon Gold potatoes with sweet butter from the Noris dairy in Crabtree and a fresh green salad from our garden with fresh herb dressing. The potatoes, lettuces and herbs were all from our garden.  A bottle of own Pinot Noir, of course, from the fresh and fruity 2008 vintage. A simple meal with delicious, nutritious food and good friends – life doesn’t get any better than this.

Voilà – a smashingly successful demonstration. Winter doesn’t have to mean deprivation, even in the absence of refrigeration.

Thursdays at the Farmers Market in Lebanon

September 30th, 2009 by Jim Just

A few years ago, downtown Lebanon received its final deathblow when the city council approved the new Super Wal-Mart at the south end of town.

But some Lebanonistas still refuse to surrender. This spring, a group of enthusiastic folk (labeling themselves with the unfortunate moniker “partners for progress”) under the motto” working together for a brighter future” started a Thursday afternoon farmers market – right in the heart of downtown Lebanon.

I was a skeptic, doubting that any effort to bring something new to downtown or to revitalize this misbegotten town would succeed. But from the first Thursday on, I was hooked.

I soon began to plan my entire week around Thursday afternoons. I compiled my shopping list all week long with Thursday afternoons in mind – but I would revise it on the spot should any fresh, new produce surprise me, to take advantage of the bounty of quality, home grown food and home made products. I no longer had to pine for big city markets such as the Pike Place Market I frequented when we lived in Seattle. I no longer had to drive to other farmers markets in Corvallis, Albany, or Sweet Home to get fresh, home grown food.

And what a draw! Vendors came from Jefferson, Harrisburg, Sweet Home, Lebanon and many places in between. There were no junk or antique dealers – just real, fresh, local foods and quality hand-made products.

I was intrigued by the idea that I could buy everything for my entire dinner right here, on a half-block stretch . . . and so I did. I bought pizza dough; bread; dessert cookies; all the veggies imaginable to prepare a week’s-worth of suppers and then more for canning or freezing; fruits for desserts, cakes and pies. I found salad stuff; herbs of all sorts; mushrooms locally grown or picked by hand, varieties I had never before heard of: lobster, pink & Phoenix oyster, chicken, ashy coral, fried chicken, hedgehog. There was organic goat cheese, made right here but usually available only in Portland or Eugene. There were flowers, cut and potted, soaps, lotions and potpourris; hand spun and knitted bags, hats and caps, handcrafted gifts and homemade preserves. And when the egg lady discovered there were only 11 eggs in her carton, she stuck a lemon cucumber in the 12th spot. “There, now it’s full”. I laughed and of course bought the mélange. And from the Worm Lady, I gleaned new insights into composting my kitchen scraps.

But Thursday afternoons in Lebanon were about more than buying great food and other things. It was a chance to chat with the vendors, to learn about their business, to share their experiences, successes, and failures. It was a chance to visit with other customers, to share recipes and ideas. It made for a perfect opportunity to meet your friends for a joint shopping spree. It was personal, direct, communal – and very lively.

The market ran from May 28 to September 24. For 18 weeks, once a week, a dozen dedicated farmers and producers spent four hours sitting in pouring rain, freezing cold, scorching heat, and all kinds of weather in between. They brought what they had grown, harvested, made or produced. I learned about crop failures, about the virtues of greenhouse tomatoes (available much earlier than mine!), about the rarity of some mushrooms, and the reason cheese wasn’t always available (you can’t milk a nursing goat!). I began to understand more about natural processes, about farmers’ problems as well as their successes – and I enjoyed what I discovered.

There was life in the street of downtown Lebanon, a real sense of community and camaraderie. I’ll miss those Thursday afternoons, and fervently hope the organizers will continue their efforts next year.

I will be there, shopping list in hand, ready to abandon it should a great find or a new variety appear to whet my proverbial appetite for fresh, local food, goods and services, with a dose of friendship thrown in gratis.

Fall on the farm

September 30th, 2009 by Jim Just

Almost a month ago I wrote about building a passive solar greenhouse at the farm. It’s now complete and in use.

Here’s the view of the south side. From a heating and cooling efficiency standpoint, it may have been better to limit the glass solely to the south side – but aesthetically, I couldn’t resist a window on the east side and a glass door.

Here’s a shot showing the back interior wall, painted black to absorb heat, with a work bench/plant shelf over the water-filled barrels that serve as a heat sink.

And this photo shows the plant shelves along the south-facing windows. More water-filled containers support the lower shelf and provide additional heat storage.

So far, the greenhouse has not dropped below 60 degrees at night and has maintained a comfy mid- 60s during the day, with a plant-friendly humidity. We’ll see how it performs in the depths of winter – and later next year, during the long hot days of summer.

We’ve moved the herbs – basil, parsley, chives – into the greenhouse, hoping to grow them all winter. The seedling tray has been planted with more basil, cilantro, and chervil.

Outside, the tomatoes have been draped with plastic to husband the last vestiges of summer heat (and protect them from hungry deer). The lettuces will get their cold frame at the first hint of frost. The fall sugar and snow peas are coming on, as is the second raspberry crop. Winter squash is just waiting on the vine. The sauerkraut should be ready to sample in another week. The sheep are taking care of themselves. Hopefully our new ram has done his work freshening the ewes and we’ll see new lambs come late December, early January.

The grapes are approaching 20° brix – another week or so of sun and they’ll be ready. Harvest is tentatively set for Saturday October 10.

Time out for farm work: a passive solar greenhouse

September 2nd, 2009 by Jim Just

It’s been an unusually long time since my last post. But I’ve been busy at work on a passive solar greenhouse. The basic structure is now up.

That’s double-pane glass on the south side (and one panel on the west), gleaned from the Lebanon Re-Store run by Habitat for Humanity. Total price for four 4 x 5 double-glazed windows and a 36? glass door: $175.

Roof and walls will be well insulated (roof R-29, walls R-19). Building materials – lumber and metal roofing – are recycled, saved from earlier remodeling projects around the house. Except for the purchased pressure-treated, the lumber is full-dimension Douglas fir harvested from the property and milled at the old Gaines Mill on Fish Hatchery Road, just a few miles away. Water-filled barrels will provide thermal mass. The biggest expenses were for insulation, a few pieces of metal trim for the roof, and screws and nails, which came to a bit over $300. The gravel for the pad was extra from the road-building project (to the left in the photo, going out to the barn).

We intend to use the greenhouse beginning in late winter as a place to start seeds and grow seedlings for transplanting into the garden, and then throughout the growing season for starting crops such as lettuces which need to be constantly replanted to maintain production. We’ve found that lettuces do great even in the midsummer heat, if they’re grown under a shade cloth.

That’s our apple orchard and sheep barn in the background.

The greenhouse is another piece of our personal program to become less reliant on an increasingly unstable economic system. I’ve been thinking about how to do it for years. Solving the thermal mass problem was the key to actually getting started. We’ve got four plastic barrels used to transport apple cider concentrate from South America that we got for free from Oregon Freeze Dry years ago, just sitting in the barn (they served as emergency fermentation tanks last year when we had a bumper grape crop). Why did it take so long to see the obvious?

Learning the hard way

July 28th, 2009 by Jim Just

Despite its devastating climate and pollution impacts, coal is at the center of many of the world’s nations energy planning, and especially that of the rapidly developing Asian economies including China and India. Yet there isn’t nearly as much coal left as most people think.

“Clean coal” – if it ever proves technically and financially feasible – would deplete limited reserves even faster, as the lower electricity generation efficiencies due to the use of CCS would require more coal to produce an equivalent amount of electricity.

Richard Heinberg, in his new book Blackout: Coal, Climate and the Last Energy Crisis looks at several recent studies on coal reserves and concludes that, best case, global coal production will peak and begin declining about 20 years from now. Not much to build a future on.

Why is the common belief that coal is plentiful so wrong? It’s all about EROIE (energy returned on energy invested). The easiest reserves are found first. Over time, as more accessible seams are mined out, what remains is increasingly difficult to obtain and expensive to transport. Post-peak, it takes increasingly more energy to mine, transport and process coal. Eventually, we will cross into negative EROEI – it will take more energy to mine, transport and process coal than the coal returns in energy.

This chart is from a report by the Energy Watch Group titled “Coal: Resources and Future Production“:

The same harsh reality holds for oil and natural gas, as well. A review published at The Oil Drum: Net Energy of the study A Preliminary Investigation of Energy Return on Energy Investment for Global Oil and Gas Production reports the authors calculate EROEI at the wellhead was roughly 26:1 in 1992, increased to 35:1 in 1999, and then decreased to 18:1 in 2006. What does this mean?

These trends imply that global supplies of petroleum available to do economic work are considerably less than estimates of gross reserves and that EROI is declining over time and with increased annual drilling levels.

Heinberg calls for a massive, controlled, humane reduction in human population along with a transition to a much lower-energy, localized form of life. I think that’s the scenario that’s most likely to unfold, whether we like it or not or whether we choose that path as a matter of deliberate policy or not. What will be, will be.

The crucial choice we face is whether we’ll invest our remaining fossil fuel energy resources in renewables and efficiency, so as to make the transition as painless and pleasant as possible – or whether we’ll squander those resources on a futile effort to maintain business as usual, ruining the planet while we’re at it.

I wouldn’t bet on wisdom winning out. We’ll have to learn the hard way.

SF Peak Oil Task Force releases report

March 17th, 2009 by Jim Just

In October 2008 San Francisco formed a Peak Oil Preparedness Task Force charged with assessing the impact of declining supplies and rising prices of fossil fuels and coming up with a plan to mitigate the ill effects. Now the Task Force has posted a working draft of its final report.

To avoid what the Task Force sees as “a much darker future,” the report makes more than 70 recommendations, including:

  • Energy: conduct waste audit, develop diverse renewable wind, solar, & tidal energy plan, build smart grid, consider feed-in tariffs.
  • Economy: source locally; revise tax policies (”progressive” business taxes, carbon tax, demand-sensitive parking fees, city vehicle tax, gasoline tax based on price floor), invest in infrastructure based on future viability (no “orphan” projects, invest in short-haul water freight, rail).
  • Food security: buy local, create city Board of Agriculture, provide incentives to use vacant land available for food production, make city parks and golf courses available for garden plots, tax fast food to fund local food production, plant fruit & nut trees along streets, tear up concrete & plant street-side gardens, allow small-scale animal husbandry, create neighborhood compost centers.
  • Transportation: impose congestion & parking charges; make intercity & regional public transit cheap, convenient, direct, reliable; build mixed-use neighborhoods, encourage telecommuting, make biking safe & convenient and establish bike-share program, promote car-free lifestyle & make it possible, switch freight from trucks to rail & water.
  • Built environment: require all new buildings to be zero energy, retrofit existing buildings, include blower test in building inspections, require energy audit on sale or remodel, use solar assessment district to finance solar installations.
  • Protecting vulnerable populations: Implement grow-your-own food program for low income families, eliminate all parking requirements for new residential construction & convert garage space to living space, provide discounted passes for public transit, implement bicycle & neighborhood electric vehicle plan, provide programs to reduce energy use for low-income families esp. renters, prepare rationing plan to allocate resources during shortages on per capita basis.

The task force is expected to finalize the report by today (Tuesday March 17) and then submit it to the Board of Supervisors.

A three-fer: eliminate hunger, improve health, support local farmers

March 16th, 2009 by Jim Just

The city of Belo, Brazil eliminated hunger while at the same time reinvigorating the local farm economy.

Frances Moore Lappé, author of Diet for a Small Planet, writes at Yes! Magazine that Belo, a city of 2.5 million people, once had 11% of its population living in absolute poverty, and almost 20% of its children going hungry. Then in 1993, a newly elected administration declared food a right of citizenship and created a city agency, which included assembling a 20-member council of citizen, labor, business, and church representatives, to advise in the design and implementation of a new food system.

The city offered local family farmers dozens of choice spots of public space on which to sell their produce. Local farmers’ profits grew, while at the same time farm income in the country as a whole was dropping by almost half – and poor people got access to fresh, healthy food.

In addition to the farmer-run stands, the city offers people the opportunity to bid on the right to use well-trafficked plots of city land for “ABC” markets (from the Portuguese acronym for “food at low prices”). 34 ABC markets now offer customers the opportunity to buy about twenty core, healthy items at a price set by the city, about two-thirds of the market price. Everything else the market owners can sell at the market price.

Another innovation involves three large, airy “People’s Restaurants” (Restaurante Popular), plus a few smaller venues, that daily serve 12,000 or more people using mostly locally grown food for the equivalent of less than 50 cents a meal.

Belo’s food security initiatives also include extensive community and school gardens as well as nutrition classes. Plus, money the federal government contributes toward school lunches, once spent on processed, corporate food, now buys whole food mostly from local growers.

Hello, local progressive city mayors and city council people? How about something similar here?

Sow the wind, reap the whirlwind

February 27th, 2009 by Jim Just

Dave Cohen at The Energy Bulletin takes a step back from our current economic problems.

First, the Age of Fossil Fuels is just a blip:

But a blip that has side effects . . .

. . . that have taken us way beyond any recent norm:

And our biggest concern is on fixing the economy to get us back on the business-as-usual growth track?

The exponential growth that we’ve come to expect as normal since the beginning of the fossil fuel age is over. But the consequences are just beginning. We’ve sowed the wind, and are about to reap the whirlwind.

Yes we can?

It’s time to get real.

Compared to panarchy theorist, Orlov’s collapse would be a walk in the park

February 15th, 2009 by Jim Just

Dmitry Orlov is the only person I know who can talk seriously about collapse and make you laugh at the same time. He’s got a new piece posted on his blog, Club Orlov, titled Social Collapse Best Practices.

Orlov grew up as a child of both the Soviet Union and the U.S., and has come up with his own “comparative theory of superpower collapse.” His theory is currently being quite thoroughly tested. The theory states that the United States and the Soviet Union will have collapsed due to the “superpower collapse soup,” which contains four main ingredients

Orlov’s recipe also calls for non-essential “spices” such as:

  • The inability to provide an acceptable quality of life for its citizens.
  • A systemically corrupt political system incapable of reform.

We’ll soon see about these. The chances of real change happening isn’t looking good, and people’s lives are increasingly unraveling. Anyhow, these last ingredients aren’t necessary components of Orlov’s recipe. They don’t automatically lead to collapse because they do not put the country on a collision course with reality.

Obama spoke of change – but he is, of course, a politician. Orlov says politicians in reality are terrified of change and want to cling with all their might to the status quo. But this game will soon be over, and they don’t have any idea what to do next.

So, what should we do? What realistic new objectives should politicians espouse? I think Orlov nails it:

Forget “growth,” forget “jobs,” forget “financial stability.” Well, here they are: food, shelter, transportation, and security. Their task is to find a way to provide all of these necessities on an emergency basis, in absence of a functioning economy, with commerce at a standstill, with little or no access to imports, and to make them available to a population that is largely penniless. If successful, society will remain largely intact, and will be able to begin a slow and painful process of cultural transition, and eventually develop a new economy, a gradually de-industrializing economy, at a much lower level of resource expenditure, characterized by a quite a lot of austerity and even poverty, but in conditions that are safe, decent, and dignified. If unsuccessful, society will be gradually destroyed in a series of convulsions that will leave a defunct nation composed of many wretched little fiefdoms. Given its largely depleted resource base, a dysfunctional, collapsing infrastructure, and its history of unresolved social conflicts, the territory of the Former United States will undergo a process of steady degeneration punctuated by natural and man-made cataclysms.

Orlov thinks the Soviet Union was much better prepared for collapse than the U.S. is – ironically, because it was much less efficient. Because it didn’t work well, people had learned to get by on their own. In the U.S., people are dependent on industrial agribusiness for their food. Our suburban single-family houses will prove to be unaffordable millstones. Once fuel shortages develop and the transportation system falls apart, people will find themselves stranded in places that aren’t survivable. As for security – well, you really have to read Orlov himself to get the flavor of the hilarity.

Orlov says it’s important for our sanity to just let go of everything.  And there’s a bright note:

While at work, do as little as possible, because all this economic activity is just a terrible burden on the environment. Just gently ride it down to a stop and jump off.

And because money is likely to become worthless, trade it in while you have the chance and “stockpile useful stuff.”

However distopian Orlov’s vision of collapse seems, it’s really pretty mild stuff. Orlov’s collapse would involve only the U.S. and its economy.

Buzz Holling, one of the world’s great ecologists and a originator of “panarchy” theory, sees a global, systemic collapse approaching, one involving the world’s climate and all the world’s continents. Panarchy theory’s core idea is that systems naturally grow, become more brittle, collapse, and then renew themselves in an endless cycle within a grand hierarchy of cycles.

Holling fears that rapidly rising connectivity within global systems – both economic and technological – poses an increasing risk of deep collapse, a collapse that will cascade across adaptive cycles, a kind of pancaking implosion of the entire system as the collapse of higher-level adaptive cycles causes progressive collapse at lower levels.

Holling thinks the world is reaching “a stage of vulnerability that could trigger a rare and major ‘pulse’ of social transformation.”

The immense destruction that a new pulse signals is both frightening and creative. The only way to approach such a period, in which uncertainty is very large and one cannot predict what the future holds, is not to predict, but to experiment and act inventively and exuberantly via diverse adventures in living.

Post Carbon Institute proposes recovery plan

January 13th, 2009 by Jim Just

The Post Carbon Institute is calling for the Obama Administration to embrace aReal New Deal.” The proposal calls for a series of bold measures to electrify the transportation system, rebuild the electricity grid, relocalize the food system, and retrofit the nation’s building stock for both energy efficiency and energy production.

The text of the “Real New Deal: Energy Scarcity and the Path to Energy, Economic, and Environmental Recovery” is available at the PCI website.

The plan’s lead author is Post Carbon Institute Senior Fellow Richard Heinberg, author of “The Party’s Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies.” Heinberg says:

While there are many ‘new deal’ plans being offered to President-elect Obama, our plan recognizes that declining fossil fuel supplies and rising greenhouse gas emissions put us at tremendous and immediate risk. Building more roads and bridges as a stimulus for jobs is the wrong tactic. We must re-engineer our country now to deal with the end of cheap energy and to stop catastrophic climate change.”

Here’s an excerpt from the Executive Summary:

The energy transition must not be limited to building wind turbines and solar panels. It must include the thorough redesign of our economic and societal infrastructure, which today is utterly dependent on cheap fossil fuels. It must address not only our transportation system and electricity grid, but also our food system and building stock.

Imagine a new paradigm for planning

December 23rd, 2008 by Jim Just

A group of Ashland sustainability activists is seeking to make Ashland the 9th city in the U.S. to be designated a Transition Town. Monthly meetings of the “Sustainability Leaders Dialog” have been drawing over 50 people planning to create volunteer teams to work on problem areas such as food, water, housing and energy.

Imagine all the people, living life in peace . . .

The Transition Town movement has arisen around the question: how can our community respond to the challenges, and opportunities, of peak oil and climate change? Transition towners ask the big question: how do we significantly increase resilience of our community (to mitigate the effects of peak oil) and drastically reduce carbon emissions (to mitigate the effects of climate change) while providing and even improving all those aspects of life that this community needs in order to sustain itself and thrive?

Imagine all the people, sharing all the world . . .

Folks with similar aims but a different focus are behind the “slow city” movement.  The Citta Slow movement is dedicated to relaxation, sustainability, quality of life, community and preservation of tradition. This approach turns traditional planning on its head. Rather than seeing planning as a way to accommodate growth – “smart” or otherwise – its aim is to improve the quality of life for people who live in the town and for the people who visit. Imagine, fighting back against corporatism and giganticism with local food and drink, produced using local products and traditional skills. Imagine having mayors, city councilors, and planning commissions on your side.

Imagine all the people, living for today . . .

Just as you can get your town “officially” designated as a “transition town, you can get it recognized as a “slow town”, too. That’s the kind of boosterism that actually begins to make sense.

You may say I’m a dreamer
But I’m not the only one
I hope someday you’ll join us
And the world will live as one

“Green teams” can lead the way to sustainability

October 15th, 2008 by Jim Just

Jan Spencer has a great op-ed in the Eugene Register Guard, titled “Disaster? Consider it an opportunity.”

He writes that our system of infinite growth is “built on sand,” and that sand is crumbling around us. Further, peak oil and climate change hold unhappy surprises.

We can choose to embrace the financial crisis as a wake-up call.

“What better opportunity to redefine personal, family and community priorities? A new set of goals, ideals and action plans are called for that are healthy, timely, challenging, positive and uplifting.”

Spencer calls for a local “peace corps” with decentralized “green teams” to lead the way to a far more downsized and localized way of taking care of our needs.

I’ve reproduced the entire piece below the fold.

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Top environmentalist calls for transformative change

October 1st, 2008 by Jim Just

James Gustave Speth, co-founder of the Natural Resources Defense Council and long-time environmental insider, laments in an article at The Nation:

Sadly, while environmentalists have been winning many battles, we are losing the planet.”

He sees that mainstream environmentalism, working within the system, has proved largely incapable of coping with the forces of capitalism. He warns:

Working only within the system will, in the end, not succeed. Transformative change in the system itself is needed.”

We must transform economic activity into something benign and restorative. The most important of these prescriptions range far beyond the traditional environmental agenda.

Economic growth – and the consumerism it depends on – are at the root of our environmental crisis. Solving our environmental and social problems requires that we focus instead on satisfying environmental and social needs directly rather than as a hoped-for byproduct of economic growth. Reality is starkly discrediting the assumption that economic growth automatically results in better quality of life.

Affluent countries must become postgrowth societies where jobs and work life, the environment, communities and the public sector are no longer sacrificed to push up GDP.”

Speth chides environmentalists for shying away from demanding serious personal changes and calls the reluctance to challenge consumption a “big mistake.”

Psychological studies show that materialism is toxic to happiness and that more income and more possessions do not lead to a lasting sense of well-being or satisfaction with life. What make people happy are warm personal relationships and giving rather than getting. Many people are trying to fight back against consumerism and commercialization. They say, Confront consumption. Practice sufficiency. Create social environments where overconsumption is viewed as silly, wasteful, ostentatious. Create commercial-free zones. Buy local. Eat slow food. Simplify your life. Downshift.”

We need a new politics and new social movement powerful enough to drive change. Speth calls for environmentalists to join social progressives to address the crisis of inequality unraveling our social fabric and undermining democracy.

Our best hope for change is a fusion of those concerned about environmental sustainability, social justice and political democracy into one progressive force.”

John McGrath at Gristmill I think rightly points out that the argument for addressing climate change must be on moral grounds. The solution is, in essence, simple – yet our politics refuses to act:

“The outlines of the solution are clear: decrease CO2 emissions to zero using renewable energy, and then start pulling out the stuff we’ve already dumped in our sky-sewer. And yet the solution, clear as day, has eluded our politics.”

McGrath compares global warming to the issue of slavery . . .

“We’re faced with a similarly stark choice today. We can either keep emitting GHGs and all die, or we can stop.

. . . and realistically points out that just because something must happen to save us does not mean that it will happen. McGrath points to an example from Canada:  the left-wing party quickly disavowed comments from a rookie candidate who said that the tar sands would have to be shut down. Of course, he was correct, but we mustn’t say such things in public. Even on the left.

As even David Letterman says, we are so screwed.

 

Clear thinking trumps faith-based formulae

August 20th, 2008 by Jim Just

I’ve long thought that peak oil denialists, like global warming denialists, should simply be ignored. They don’t deserve to be taken seriously. Rising to rebut them gives them more attention and respect than they deserve and serves to maintain the fantasy that there’s room for a serious debate.

For example, today I came across this screed asserting that people are wrong to worry about peak oil and climate change. Human ingenuity and the laws of economics will bail us out. All that’s needed is more investment and more technology to assure abundant fossil fuel supplies, that carbon can be safely squirreled away, and that new energy sources will emerge to bail us out anyway. Same old faith-based gibberish, not worth the effort of a response.

Contrast this article at The Oil Drum: Europe: Should EROEI be the most important criterion our society uses to decide how it meets its energy needs? It’s refreshing for its clear, hard thinking.

Energy returned on energy invested (EROEI or EROI) is a concept that mirrors the financial metric return on investment (ROI). In order to make an energy gain or “profit”, energy or work must be consumed or exerted. The energy gain or profit is referred to as “net energy”. EROEI is usually expressed as a ratio, or occasionally as a percentage.

Adam Dadeby argues that society’s key decision-making mainstream – financial markets, governments, legislative bodies, and civil service and policy-making and lobbying bodies – show little evidence that the concept and significance of EROEI is grasped or accepted.

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