The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) reports the Arctic sea ice melt season got off to a slow start this year, but ice extent is now plummeting.

Arctic sea ice extent declined slowly through the first three weeks of April, compared to recent years. The slow decline through March and the first few weeks of April meant that by mid-April, ice extent was at near-average levels. However, much of the extensive ice cover is thin ice that will melt quickly once temperatures rise in the Arctic. Over the past week, extent has started to fall sharply.

NSIDC says the relatively high ice extent will have little influence on how much ice melts this summer, explaining that much of the ice cover is recently formed thin ice that will melt out quickly and that sea ice extent in spring does not tell us much about ice extent the following summer. More important to the summer melt is the thickness of the ice cover, and summer weather.

A new study published in Geophysical Research Letters concludes the only physically plausible link with the Arctic sea-ice retreat observed in recent years is the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations:

The most likely explanation for the linear trend during the satellite era from 1979 onwards is the almost linear increase in CO2 concentration during that period.

Quelle surprise: a new study finds that economic growth causes global warming.

The study, Climate change and the world economy: short-run determinants of atmospheric CO2, is published in the on-line journal Environmental Science & Policy. Unfortunately, it’s behind a paywall. The conclusion, excepted below, describes the study’s major finding:

The major conclusion of our study is that the annual growth of atmospheric CO2 levels is strongly dependent on the absolute growth of the world economy, so that the annual absolute increase of WGDP is a key variable to capture the annual increase in atmospheric CO2. * * * Our study provides substantive evidence that in the short run, world economic activity is a major determinant of rising CO₂ concentrations (we also show that estimated CO₂ emissions closely follow the oscillations of the world economy). For each trillion that WGDP deviates from trend, CO₂ atmospheric levels deviate from trend, in the same direction, about half a part per million. These findings are important because they reduce the uncertainty in the links of the causal chain implied in climate changing, and allow for quantitative estimates of the required levels of “human activity” that would reduce CO₂ concentrations if business-as-usual conditions are maintained.

Co-author Tapia Granados, researcher at the University of Michigan, says (with a scientist’s usual hedging) what nobody is willing to hear : economic contraction will be needed to reduce atmospheric levels of CO₂. If we want to save Earth’s climate, we’ll have to disavow economic growth and instead embrace la décroissance économique.

Environmentalists made a fatal miscalculation from the get-go in failing to challenge the ideology of growth. Rachel Carson kicked off the environmental movement 50 years ago in 1962, with the publishing of Silent Spring. Carson intimated that the project of progress and growth was fatally infected with hubris. Carson showed that the consequences might be unknowable and awful – awful not only in the sense of “filling with terror and dread” but also of “inspiring awe, filling with profound reverence” as Nature took her revenge. Silent Spring touched deep emotional chords, evoking an archaic world where transgressing inviolable boundaries evoked implacable retribution from forces beyond the control of humans.

But in their minds, environmentalists as well as politicians and economists had left the ancient world and old gods behind. Environmentalists joined in believing that Nature could be negotiated with and appeased if not conquered and subjugated. Scientist and environmentalist David Suzuki points to the movement’s fundamental miscalculation:

Environmentalism has failed. Over the past 50 years, environmentalists have succeeded in raising awareness, changing logging practices, stopping mega-dams and offshore drilling, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. But we were so focused on battling opponents and seeking public support that we failed to realize these battles reflect fundamentally different ways of seeing our place in the world. And it is our deep underlying worldview that determines the way we treat our surroundings.

The big mistake was in seeing the environment as separate from and even subordinate to the economy.

[E]nvironmental protection came to be seen as an impediment to economic growth. * * *

Now the human economy has become a force that is altering the physical, chemical, and biological properties of the planet on a geological scale, destroying the very ground of our being.

In creating dedicated departments, we made the environment another special interest, like education, health, and agriculture. The environment subsumes every aspect of our activities, but we failed to make the point that our lives, health, and livelihoods absolutely depend on the biosphere—air, water, soil, sunlight, and biodiversity. Without them, we sicken and die. This perspective is reflected in spiritual practices that understand that everything is interconnected, as well as traditional societies that revere “Mother Earth” as the source of all that matters in life.

It was a mistake from the beginning in failing to advocate for and defend the land and the environment as a spiritual practice. It was a mistake to buy into the growth paradigm, thinking environmentalism would be easier to sell if it could be portrayed as accommodating and even enhancing economic growth. By failing to stand up for the fundamental reality that we are part of and dependent on the web of life that keeps the planet habitable, the battle was lost without ever being engaged.

Similarly in Oregon, land use advocates committed a fatal error at the very beginning. Upon taking office in 1967, Republican Governor Tom McCall had the state’s quarterly economic development publication renamed from “Growth” to “Quality” (and later, to “Progress). In 1971, in an interview by Terry Drinkwater before a national audience on the CBS Evening News, McCall pleaded for people not to move to Oregon:

Come visit us again and again. This is a state of excitement. But, for Heaven’s sake, don’t come here to live.

In selling and defending new land use regulations,  McCall railed against “grasping wastrels of the land” and and “local officials who cater to developers and exploiters”. But even McCall could not bring himself to reject the economic growth paradigm, attacking only “unlimited and unregulated” growth and calling for “healthy, imaginative, nonpolluting industry”. When Senate Bill 100 emerged from the sausage factory of the legislature, the most visionary piece – “areas of critical state concern” – had been dropped from the bill; environmentalists and a vision as the land as a value in itself just weren’t that important. The bill passed only because powerful economic interests – the agriculture industry and the timber industry – were bought off with a huge property tax break, farm and forest special assessment. Deals were made with other economic interests as well, including homebuilders and industry.

In the early 2000s, Oregon’s planning program faced a moral challenge as being unfair to property owners, depriving them of their economic rights. The program’s supporters early reliance on economics as its justification left them disarmed in the face of a moral challenge. Their response to the proponents’ “fairness” argument was a feeble, “it’s too expensive”. Their response, when Measure 37 passed, was to save the program by destroying it. Land use “advocates” promulgated and spend millions to pass Measure 49, which enshrined “property rights” as the heart and soul of land use in Oregon. “Fairness” supplanted the admittedly limited goal of “preservation of a maximum amount of the limited supply of agricultural land . . . necessary to the conservation of the state’s economic resources” – a goal that itself embodied the fatal flaw that would eventually lead to the planning program’s demise. Any regulation that hits a property owner in the pocketbook is now and forever anathema.

In saving its land use planning program, Oregon land use proponents betrayed and sacrificed the very land the program was supposed to nurture and protect, too timid to even engage in its defense. As with environmentalism generally, the battle was surrendered without being fought.

Autodata Corp. estimates U.S. light vehicle sales were at a 14.42 million SAAR in April. That is up 9.8% from April 2011, and up 0.7% from the sales rate (14.3 million SAAR) in March 2012.

This chart from Calculated Risk shows that auto sales are now plugging along at rates comparable to those in the mid-1990s.

The U.S. population and the number of licensed drivers have both increased by about 19% since 1995.

While auto sales are up a bit, MasterCard Inc. reports gasoline sales continue to drop. U.S. gasoline demand fell 0.4% last week, 5.6% below the year-earlier level. Gasoline consumption stayed below year-earlier levels for the 35th consecutive week. Fuel use over the previous four weeks fell 5.2% from the same period in 2011, a record 58th consecutive drop in that measure.

This chart from and article by Robert Rapier illustrates why high oil prices are here to stay despite dropping demand in the U.S. and Europe.

While auto sales have now rebounded from their “great recession” lows, it’s pretty clear that the long-term trend that has persisted since the beginning of the auto age has reversed and is now down rather than up.

This last week the sun came out, and the soil dried out a bit. Our raised bed gopher-proofing project could finally get underway.

First, the beds had to be excavated, down to a depth of about 16 inches. Luckily, Zooey was there to help.

Then we lined the beds with hardware cloth.

Finally, fill the beds back in again. The one is now planted with peas (tomatoes are in the background).

The other, with carrots – prime gopher bait. That’s a sheep grazing in the background, on lush spring grass.

Gophers – hahahahahaha. You’ll not be munching our carrots, peas, and beans this year. Or so we hope.

Nasturtiums, overwintered in the solarium, are already in bloom . . .

. . . and the ivy geraniums are beginning to come on.

So much beauty – and it’s not yet May.

The Arctic sea ice melt season is off to an extremely slow start, with extent and area numbers approaching the long-term averages.

Will the trend lines soon start falling of a cliff? Well, the Polar Science Center at the University of Washington reports that ice volume is still at or near record lows for this time of the year. Ice volume for March 2012 was 20,800 km³, the same as last year but 35% lower than the maximum in 1979, 24% below the mean, and 1.7 standard deviations from the trend.

Most of the older, thicker ice has disappeared from the Arctic.

This March, first-year ice made up 75% of the Arctic sea ice cover. Thicker multi-year ice used to make up around a quarter of the Arctic sea ice cover. Now it constitutes only 2%. This thin, young ice is susceptible to melting. The areas in purple on the map above can be expected to disappear quickly once the melting season gets underway in earnest.

Melting sea ice is apparently initiating a previously unknown feedback effect. In a study published in Nature Geoscience, researchers report that significant amounts of methane are released from the ocean into the atmosphere through cracks in the melting sea ice.  Previously, large methane plumes have been observed emanating from the seabed in the relatively shallow sea off the northern coast of Siberia, but the latest findings come far away from land in the deep, open ocean where the surface has in the past been capped by ice. The researchers conclude:

We suggest that the surface waters of the Arctic Ocean represent a potentially important source of methane, which could prove sensitive to changes in sea ice cover. The association with sea ice makes this methane source likely to be sensitive to changing Arctic ice cover and dynamics, providing an unrecognised feedback process in the global atmosphere-climate system.

The researchers estimate open ocean emissions are comparable to emissions seen on the Siberian shelf.

Methane is about 70 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide when it comes to trapping heat. Because methane is broken down rather quickly in the atmosphere, it is about 20 times more powerful averaged over a 100-year period.

The Federal Highway Administration’s Traffic Volume Trends reports travel on U.S. roads in February was up 1.8% compared to February 2011.  Cumulative VMT for 2012 is up 1.7% compared to 2011.

However, the long-term trend remains down. In the early ’80s, VMT (moving 12 months total) stayed below the previous peak for 39 months. Currently VMT (moving 12 months total) has been below the previous peak for 51 months – more than 4 years – and has a long way to recover before regaining the previous peak.

In Oregon, VMT was up 0.9% in February 2012 compared to February 2011 – the first year-over year increase in 14 months. Cumulative VMT for 2012 is down 1.2% compared to 2011.

The reported increase in VMT is a bit perplexing given the continuing plunge in U.S. petroleum and gasoline consumption. The chart below, by Tim Wallace and posted by Mish Shedlock,  shows Jan-Feb-March 2012 usage compared to the same three months in prior years.

Diesel fuel usage is down, too. The chart below (again from Mish) shows that Ceridian real-time diesel fuel usage through March is back to mid-2005 levels.

It’s a puzzle how VMT can be up at the same time gasoline and diesel consumption is falling sharply.

March was a really wet month in Oregon, a record-breaking month in Portland. Here on the farm, 11.76 inches of rain fell during the month – more than Eugene, more than Salem, more than Portland. April has continued to be wet. We’ve measured 4.81 inches so far through the 18th.

Still, there have been sunny days, and warm enough to eat lunch outside on the patio and enjoy a glass of wine on the deck in the evening before dinner. During the occasional respite from the rains, we’ve managed to begin getting the garden in.

Cabbages, Brussels sprouts, broccoli, cauliflower, and onions have been planted out and are now growing in the raised beds.

Potatoes are planted, garlic is growing, and the winter covers have come off the lettuce beds.

We repaired fencing this winter, replacing posts that had rotted and broken off at ground level. We used the old posts to make raised beds for artichokes and for vining plants – summer and winter squashes, and cucumbers.

Leaves have erupted on the trees and shrubs, turning the woods a fresh, bright green.

Grape buds are starting to swell. The apple trees are beginning to bloom.

And there’s sunshine and warm weather in the forecast for the weekend – and no threat of frost in sight. It’s enough to make the heart sing.

There is one thing and one thing alone I never tire of watching –
The spring river as it trickles over the stones and babbles past the rocks.

Po Chü-i

Things were soon to change. Oil production in the U.S. peaked in 1971. Linn County passed its first zoning ordinance in 1972, and in 1973 Oregon passed Senate Bill 100 and began to implement this country’s first statewide land use planning program.

In 1981, James Hansen published his first global temperature projection . . .

. . . a projection that has so far proved to be pretty darn good.

Since 2004 world oil production has remained within 5% of its peak despite historically high prices.

Now, almost 50 years later, Willamette Speedway wants to expand. As a nonconforming use, that should be pretty tough. A nonconforming use can be altered only if the alteration would have “no greater adverse impact to the neighborhood”.

The noise from the racetrack is bad enough. The roar of engines and the blaring of loudspeakers can be heard a dozen or more miles away, every weekend from late March to early October.

But the issues involve more than noise, which disturbs the tranquilly throughout the city and the countryside and must be insufferable for those who live close by. More than light from the towers lining the track. More than traffic on neighborhood streets.

The big issue is the continued celebration of the car culture. Driving as fast as you can around in a circle, going nowhere, burning precious fossil fuels, spewing greenhouse gas emissions in the process. Oil markets are global. The atmosphere doesn’t respect borders. Our neighborhood is bigger than Lebanon, bigger than Linn County. Our neighborhood is the world.

The time for indulgence of such foolishness is long past. Continued indulgence of such destructive profligacy is unconscionable. Like Christine, the car culture is a killer. And like Christine, that killer is refusing to die.

A recent post noted that Arctic warming is already affecting Earth’s weather. The analysis revealed two major factors contributing to the unusual Norther Hemisphere weather events in recent winters: changes in atmospheric circulation and changes in atmospheric water vapor content. Both are linked to diminishing Arctic sea ice.

The study, titled “Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall”, is published in the online early edition of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

A press release quotes co-author Judith Curry:

Our study demonstrates that the decrease in Arctic sea ice area is linked to changes in the winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation. The circulation changes result in more frequent episodes of atmospheric blocking patterns, which lead to increased cold surges and snow over large parts of the northern continents.

The Georgia Tech study found that Arctic sea ice loss had in recent years caused a 20 – 60% weakening of the west-to-east belt of winds circling the pole, producing broader meanders in the jet stream that allows it to get “stuck” in place 20 – 60% more often. Co-author Jiping Liue explains:

We think the recent snowy winters could be caused by the retreating Arctic ice altering atmospheric circulation patterns by weakening westerly winds, increasing the amplitude of the jet stream and increasing the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. These pattern changes enhance blocking patterns that favor more frequent movement of cold air masses to middle and lower latitudes, leading to increased heavy snowfall in Europe and the Northeast and Midwest regions of the United States.

While the eastern parts of Canada and the U.S. experienced episodes of almost summer-like conditions this past winter, much of Europe and Asia has been blasted by unusually cold and snowy weather. The jet stream marks the boundary between cold, Arctic air to the north, and warmer subtropical air to the south, areas on both sides of the jet are subjected to extended periods of unusually warm or cold weather during a blocking episode. A blocking pattern early this year brought exceptionally cold and snowy conditions to much of Europe, which lay on the cold side of an elongated loop of the jet stream that got stuck in place. Conversely, most of North America and northern Siberia saw unusually warm temperatures during this period, since they were on the warm side of the jet stream. The cold air spilling out of the Arctic during this past winter was confined to Europe – unlike the previous two winters, which were unusually cold and snowy in the Eastern U.S.

This chart from Jeff Master’s Wunderblog shows what such a “blocking pattern” looked like in the U.S. this March, resulting in record warm temperatures in the midwest and on the east coast while the west coast was being hit with a rare late-season episode of cold and snow.

UPDATE: here’s yet another study linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes. The jet stream, the study says, is becoming “wavier,” with steeper troughs and higher ridges. Weather systems are progressing more slowly, raising the chances for long-duration extreme events, like droughts, floods, and heat waves. These effects are particularly evident in autumn and winter consistent with sea-ice loss. Key points:

Jeff Masters at Wunderblog posts these satellite images showing the dramatic reduction in Arctic sea ice over the last three decades.

Arctic sea ice in September 2007 reached its lowest extent on record, approximately 40% lower than when satellite records began in 1979. Sea ice loss in 2011 was virtually tied with the ice loss in 2007, despite weather conditions that were not as unusual in the Arctic.

Masters points out the area of lost ice coverage is equal to about 44% of the contiguous U.S., or 71% of the non-Russian portion of Europe.

The National Snow and Ice Data Center says the Arctic sea ice melt season has finally begun:

On March 18, 2012, Arctic sea ice extent reached its annual maximum extent, marking the beginning of the melt season for Northern Hemisphere sea ice. This year’s maximum extent was the ninth lowest in the satellite record.

Sea ice appeared to have reached its maximum extent earlier in the month on March 6 – but an unexpected change in Arctic weather lead to a late-season surge.

The maximum this year was very late compared to recent years, occurring 12 days later than the 1979 to 2000 average date of March 6.

• March 6th 2005: 13.46
• March 11th 2006: 13.36
• February 26th 2007: 13.32
• March 11th 2008: 13.89
• March 2nd 2009: 13.85
• March 7th 2010: 13.81
• March 8th 2011: 13.14
• March 20th 2012: 13.70

This year’s maximum ice extent was 15.24 million square kilometers (5.88 million square miles), 614,000 square kilometers (237,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average of 15.86 million square kilometers (6.12 million square miles). This year’s maximum was the ninth lowest in the satellite record. Last year (2011) was the lowest maximum on record at 14.64 million square kilometers (5.65 million square miles). Including this year, the nine years from 2004 to 2012 are the nine lowest maximums in the satellite record.

Sea ice extent in February and March tends to be quite variable, because ice near the edge is thin and often quite dispersed. The thin ice is highly sensitive to weather, moving or melting quickly in response to changing winds and temperatures, and it often oscillates near the maximum extent for several days or weeks, as it has done this year. NSIDC’s call includes this caveat:

As of March 23, ice extent has declined for five days. However, there is still a chance that the ice extent could expand again.

Why should we care about what’s happening in the Arctic? Because the Arctic is the “canary in the coal mine”, warming faster than anyplace else on Earth.

The warming Arctic is already affecting Earth’s weather. The erratic weather and extreme weather events seen over last few years are merely a foretaste of what’s in store for the future. Jennifer A. Francis, a Rutgers University climate researcher, is quoted in the New York Times:

The question really is not whether the loss of the sea ice can be affecting the atmospheric circulation on a large scale. The question is, how can it not be, and what are the mechanisms?

Climate mechanisms in the Arctic are a major driver of weather in the northern hemisphere, including not only “über-extreme” weather evens but also the weird and unpredictable weather affecting crops and livelihoods at home, like here in Oregon. What happens in the Arctic directly impacts us in our daily lives.

The Federal Highway Administration reports travel on all roads and streets was up 1.6% for January 2012 as compared with January 2011.

However, the long-term trend remains down. In the early ’80s, VMT (moving 12 months total) stayed below the previous peak for 39 months. Currently VMT (moving 12 months total) has been below the previous peak for 50 months – more than 4 years – and has a long way to recover before regaining the previous peak.

In the 13 western states, vehicle miles traveled was down 1.5% for January 2012 compared to January 2011. In Oregon, VMT was down 3.3% in January 2012 compared to January 2011. VMT in Oregon has now been down from the previous year for 13 straight months.

The uptick in VMT in January seems a bit of an anomaly. The EIA reports motor fuel consumption in the US has been down by ~7% this year (the EIA notes that taking into account new methodology which now better accounts for the sharply increased exports seen beginning in 2010 and 2011, U.S. gasoline consumption in January 2012 was more realistically down only 4.3% rather than the 7% or so shown in its weekly reports). According to MasterCard’s SpendingPulse, U.S. gasoline demand fell 7.2% below a year earlier last week, the biggest drop in that measure in more than two years. Gasoline consumption has dropped by 3% over the last 52 weeks. The weekly consecutive decline in year-over-year consumption is longer than the 51-week slide during the recession.

The decline in gasoline consumption is consistent with gasoline prices, which have been rising in concert with crude oil prices. Despite high prices and weak economies in the OECD countries, global demand for oil is refusing to falter.  After hitting new record highs at the end of last year, global oil production is flattening once again, as seen in this chart from OPEC’s March Monthly Oil Market Report.

Reuters reports the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline rose to $3.93 on March 23. As seen in this chart from Gas Buddy, gas prices are beginning to approach heights last seen in the summer of 2008, just before the financial crisis and economic crash.

Auto sales in the U.S. so far this year are a bit of an anomaly, too. Sales were up 11% in January year-over-year, up 16% in February, and are expected to be up 6% in March. The first-quarter annual selling rate is expected to come in at 14.4 million vehicles. Last year, about 12.8 million vehicles were sold in the United States. U.S. auto sales averaged nearly 17 million vehicles a year in the 10-year period ending in 2007.

Meanwhile, auto sales in Europe have collapsed. New car sales were down 9.7% in February. Two months into the year, car sales in the EU are down 8.3% from the same period a year earlier. Mish at Global Economic Trend Analysis posts this chart . . .

. . . and excerpts this commentary:

The harmless looking percentages hide the fact that this February was the worst of the millennium. Only 888,878 units changed hands in the EU27 in February, the lowest level since comparing months made sense (going back further is futile, the EU was much smaller then…) Even during carmageddon, Europe had not seen a February as bad as this one.

EU basket cases Greece and Portugal saw their new car sales nearly halved. These are relatively unimportant markets, by now, tiny Luxemburg has more car sales than Greece. If Greece would leave the EU, it would not even register in the car statistics. What hurts much more is the deterioration of the volume markets. France is down 20.2 percent, not boding well for PSA and Renault. Italy is down 18.9 percent, putting pressure on Fiat. Flat sales in Germany spared Europe a double digit tanking.

Perhaps cars are being replaced in the U.S. simply because they are beginning to wear out. The average age of vehicles on the road in the United States reached a record 11.1 years in 2011.

With gas prices high and rising, and VMT dropping, it’s hard to construct a scenario in which U.S. auto sales continue to increase.

The Census Bureau reports the number of light vehicles registered in the U.S. peaked in 2008 at 247,322,000 million. In 2009 (the latest date for which Census Bureau data is available), registrations declined to 243,999,000. However, the U.S. Department of Energy Center for Transportation Analysis reports the number of light vehicles in the U.S. dropped to 235,034,000 in 2010. Over the two years (2009 – 2010) since the peak in vehicles on U.S. roads for which we have data, new light vehicle sales totaled 22.4 million (10.6 million in 2009, 11.8 million in 2010) while the number of cars and light trucks on U.S. roads declined by 12.3 million. 34.7 million light vehicles were scrapped and disappeared from the vehicle registration rolls over those two years – 17.35 million a year. No wonder gas consumption and VMT are down.

It would seem a safe bet that unless U.S. auto sales return to the record high levels of the early 2000s, cars and light trucks will continue to disappear from U.S. roads and streets. The days of ever-expanding road capacity are over. Or at least they should be. We should be asking ourselves: is there really any need for the Columbia River Crossing? Or is the CRC a multi-billion dollar boondoggle, a bridge to nowhere?

It’s been cold and wet – too cold and wet to work much outdoors. Indoors, the greenhouse is full of seedlings.

Everything is thriving – the heat mats really make a difference. Two heat mats now cover the entire top shelf. This week when my new cables and thermostat arrive, I’ll redo the bottom shelf so the the entire area can warm the seed trays from the bottom. Currently the lower heat mat is not quite as warm as we would like. The external thermostat should enable us to better adjust and control the temperature.

We’ve got more spinach and lettuces ready to plant out, as soon as we get a break in the weather. Herb seeds are planted – basil, parsley, chervil, and cilantro (which we renew repeatedly, throughout the summer). Various members of the onion family are up. Brassicas (cabbages, broccoli, cauliflower, Brussels sprouts) are sprouted and growing. Having lots of space in the greenhouse presented the opportunity to start a wide variety of tomatoes and peppers, for friends’ gardens as well as our own. In a couple of months when the weather will at last be warm enough for them to be planted out, the plants should be big and strong.

In the solarium, geraniums and nasturtiums are already growing. By the time the danger of frost is past and they can be moved outside, they may be already blooming.

Our citrus and artichokes are thriving, as well.

A couple of days over the last couple of weeks the sun saw the sun triumph briefly over winter clouds. On those days, temperatures in the solarium got up to over 100°. Next time the sun is forecast, I’ll have to reinstall the automatic vent that I disconnected and plugged for the winter.

Those precious days of sunshine presented a window of opportunity to help a neighbor build a horse shelter, using salvaged sheet metal and timbers. And just in time. The short respite of sunshine was followed by a mid-March snow storm.

Our neighbor raises Puerto Rican Paso Finos. He claims to be the only breeder of this variety west of the Florida panhandle. Irina passes this spirited fellow every day on her morning walk. She insisted he gets a feeder for his alfalfa and a bedding of fresh straw.

Ice extent usually reaches its annual maximum sometime in late February or March, but the exact date varies widely from year to year.

The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) reports that sea ice extent in February (as in January) was low on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, but unusually high on the Pacific side of the Arctic, remaining lower than average overall. At the end of the month, ice extent rose sharply, as winds changed and started spreading out the ice cover.

The University of Washington’s Polar Science Center latest updated graph shows ice volume is now slightly lower than last year.

Neven at Arctic Sea Ice Blog reports that this year’s multi-year ice cover as of January 1 was just a bit higher than that of 2008, which was extremely low due to the preceding record melting season of 2007.

It’s unusually “not cold” in much of the Arctic . . .

. . .  with the notable exception of the Beaufort, Chukchi, and Bering Seas – which is consistent with the expanded ice extent on the Pacific side of the Arctic.

We will soon begin to see the 2012 melting season unfold, as it is about to start (if it hasn’t already). [Update 3/14: Neven at Arctic Sea Ice Blog has called the maximum as of March 6, 2012. The 2012 Arctic sea ice melt season is officially underway.]

One more thought: notice the anomalously warm temperatures around Greenland, especially on the eastern side.  A new study by scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the Universidad Complutense de Madrid concludes the Greenland ice sheet is more vulnerable to global warming than previously thought. The best estimate of the temperature threshold for melting the ice sheet completely is 1.6 degrees above pre-industrial levels, with a range of 0.8 to 3.2 degrees Celsius. And 0.8 degrees global warming has already been observed.

Previous research estimated the threshold in global temperature increase for melting the Greenland ice sheet was 3.1 degrees, with a range of 1.9 to 5.1 degrees. The new study’s best estimate is about half that.

Team-leader Andrey Ganopolski of PIK explains that the Greenland ice sheet could hit a “tipping point” beyond which recovery would become impossible:

Our study shows that under certain conditions the melting of the Greenland ice sheet becomes irreversible. This supports the notion that the ice sheet is a tipping element in the Earth system. If the global temperature significantly overshoots the threshold for a long time, the ice will continue melting and not regrow – even if the climate would, after many thousand years, return to its preindustrial state.

The vulnerability of the Greenland ice sheet arises because of feedbacks between the climate and the ice sheet. The ice sheet is over 3000 meters thick and thus elevated into cooler altitudes. When it melts its surface comes down to lower altitudes with higher temperatures, which accelerates the melting. Also, the ice reflects a large part of solar radiation back into space. When the area covered by ice decreases, more radiation is absorbed and this adds to regional warming.

A business-as-usual scenario of greenhouse-gas emissions could lead to 8 degrees Celsius of global warming. This would result in one fifth of the ice sheet melting within 500 years and a complete loss in 2000 years. Alexander Robinson, lead-author of the study, notes:

[C]ompared to what has happened in our planet’s history, it is fast. And we might already be approaching the critical threshold.

Melting of the current Greenland ice sheet would result in a sea-level rise of about 6.5 meters.

It’s not just deliveries of petroleum products that are down. Gasoline deliveries are down, too – to levels last seen in early 2002.

Calculated Risk reports U.S. light vehicle sales were estimated at a 15.1 million SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in February, up 14.1% from February 2011 and 6.9% from the sales rate of 14.13 million SAAR in January 2012. (Note: delivery from the factory to a dealer, not the sale by a dealer to a retail customer,  is counted as a “sale”.) The annualized sales rate is up sharply over the last two months, and this is the highest sales rate since February 2008. Calculated Risk posts this chart showing light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Light vehicle sales are up sharply from their post-financial crisis lows, but remain well off peak sales levels or even average sales levels of the last decade.

An increase in light vehicle sales at the same time fuel sales are plummeting seems anomalous. Why would people be buying cars again even as driving is dropping?

This morning at dawn, the sky was filled horizon to horizon with flights of geese, constantly calling as they headed north. Flight after flight passed over the farm, the surrounding woods alive with the chatter of birds. The cacophony was almost enough to drown out the background aspiration of  motor vehicles, inescapable even out here in the countryside, far from any town or highway.

In my darker moments, I am filled with foreboding. Oil and other fossil fuels, humans could and will learn once again to live without. And even thrive, as humans did for tens of thousands of years – although our numbers might not be so great. Perhaps a blessing, as the world would be replenished with other species. But consider: what if, in the last spasms of the fossil fuel age, humans were to destroy the very ground of their being, erasing any chance of transitioning to a more gentle and hopeful future?

Humans have already set in motion forces that are profoundly changing Earth, most likely into an Earth we will no longer find familiar and amenable.

A new study in the journal Science finds only one period in the last 300 million years when the oceans acidified as fast as today: the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, or PETM. Says lead author Bärbel Hönisch:

What we’re doing today really stands out in the geologic record. We know that life during past ocean acidification events was not wiped out – new species evolved to replace those that died off. But if industrial carbon emissions continue at the current pace, we may lose organisms we care about – coral reefs, oysters, salmon.

In his comments on the study, Joseph Romm at Climate Progress notes humans are putting marine life at risk in a frighteningly unique way:

[T]he current rate of CO₂ release stands out as capable of driving a combination and magnitude of ocean geochemical changes potentially unparalleled in at least the last ~300 My of Earth history, raising the possibility that we are entering an unknown territory of marine ecosystem change.

Old species, new species – Earth doesn’t care. But we might. Especially if one of those species is us.

Global temperatures are rising, with Arctic temperatures rising the most. Arctic ice is disappearing, with the oldest and thickest Arctic ice vanishing faster than younger, thinner ice. Sea ice loss is affecting the large-scale atmospheric circulation, which leads to weird weather patterns and extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere: longer-duration cold spells, snow events, heat waves, flooding events, and drought conditions.

Earth takes several decades to respond to increased CO2 because of the thermal inertia of the oceans. Consequently, the effects we’re seeing today result from what we thoughtlessly dumped into the air 25 to 50 years ago. And emissions have grown enormously since then. While global crude oil production may have finally plateaued, crude production increased about 25% since 1980. Global natural gas production doubled over that period, while global coal production almost doubled. Climate impacts from the huge amounts of CO2 emitted in the last three or four decades, although yet unfelt, are already locked in.

Emissions are now beyond the control of the U.S. and other western nations. Asia-Pacific coal output has doubled, and doubled again (a 400 percent increase) since 1980. China’s coal consumption is now four times that of the U.S., and China alone is now responsible for about half of the world’s coal consumption.

Global emissions have never been higher than now, and prospects for voluntarily doing anything to lower them are nil. In another thirty or forty years, humans will begin to reap the consequences. Unfortunately, other living creatures will suffer the consequences, too. Resource limits and economic contraction offer the only hope for keeping the consequences of climate change to merely “catastrophic” levels.

One of the reasons we choose to live in the Pacific Northwest is because the region is predicted to suffer relatively less from climate change. But even if those “rosy” scenarios prove correct, how much faith can we place in the continued ecological integrity and productivity of our refuge? Will geese continue to fly north to breed in the spring? Will salmon continue to spawn in our streams? Will the mighty Douglas-fir continue to grow thick in our mountains? Will the rains continue to fall, greening the grass and nurturing our crops? Will the summer warmth continue to ripen our grapes and our tomatoes? After the last couple of summers, who can be sure?

For our lives it probably doesn’t matter, as the more fearsome consequences of humanity’s perfidity won’t have time to become manifest before the end of our time on Earth. But we shudder for those who will follow.

Pray for collapse. Plan for collapse. Work for collapse. Collapse is humanity’s only hope.

And time for comfort food. A friend surprised us with a gift of four duck carcasses. Ooh, duck soup! We have a favorite recipe, from the south of France.

Alicuit

Ingredients, for each carcass:

Carcass of duck (including wings & neck)
1 onion, diced
2 carrots, diced
1 turnip, diced
~ 1 doz. mushrooms, sliced
~ 1 doz. Kalamata olives, rinsed and sliced
1 large potato, diced
~ 1 T flour
1 C white wine
bouquet garni (thyme, parsley, bay leaf, celery)
1 clove
1 piece star anise
salt & pepper

Preparation:

Roast the duck carcass(es) in a roasting pan in a 400° oven, turning a couple of times, for about an hour or until bones are golden brown. Move to stove top. Add a healthy splash of white wine & add water until carcass is immersed. Add a couple of cloves, a piece of star anise, salt and pepper, & bouquet garni. Bring to boil and simmer for about an hour.

Strain stock through a colander (don’t forget to put a pot under the colander to catch the stock!). Skim the duck fat from the surface of the duck stock & save – it’s precious stuff.

When the carcass has cooled enough to work with, pick out and discard the bouquet garni and then pick the duck meet off the bones (save the skin, fatty bits & other bits you don’t want to eat as a treat for your dog).

While the carcass is cooling: in a stock pot, sauté the diced onion in duck fat until softened and translucent. Add the diced carrots and cook a bit, then add the turnips, then the mushrooms, & finally the olives. Add the flour and cook a bit (we were having a gluten-intolerant guest for dinner, so we left out the flour  & thickened with corn starch at the end instead). Add the stock, first a little bit at a time, stirring to incorporate the cooked flour as a paste.

Add the duck meat to the stock pot, bring to a boil, and simmer for ~ 1½ hours. About 30 minutes before the end, add the potatoes. When the potatoes have cooked so they’re just tender, serve.

Speaking of comfort food, nothing says “comfort” on a cold winter day better than a pot roast. I remember as a kid looking forward to a trip to Grandmother’s house on Sunday afternoon, where a pot roast would be simmering on the stove top. We’ve since discovered that adding a couple of spicy sausages to the pot makes a pot roast even more delectable.

Pot Roast à La Ferme Noire

1 beef rump roast
4 of your favorite sausages (we prefer something spicy, like Hot Italian or Southwest Chicken)
1 onion, diced
2 carrots
1 doz. mushrooms, sliced
1 oz olive oil
2 T flour
1 C red wine
1 T tomato paste
bouquet garni (thyme, parsley, celery, bay leaf)
2 cloves
salt & pepper
1 C beef stock

Pat the beef roast dry, then coat generously with salt and pepper. In a stock pot, heat the olive oil. Brown the meat and the sausages on all sides; remove and set aside. Add the onions and cook, stirring, until softened and translucent. Add mushrooms and cook a bit, stirring. Add flour and cook, stirring, for a couple of minutes. Splash in some red wine, stirring to make a paste with the flour. Add the rest of the red wine, stirring, then the beef stock. Add the tomato paste and stir in. Return the beef roast and sausages to the pot. Add the carrots, bouquet garni and cloves. Bring to a boil and simmer, covered, for 1½ hours or until the beef is tender enough to pull apart. Discard carrots and bouquet garni. Arrange roast and sausages on serving platter, surround with sauce, and serve.

Pot roast served with boiled potatoes & shredded turnips steamed with apple

We had a set of triplets this week, all girls. Triplets are always a bit worrisome, as you never know if the mother will be willing or able to handle all three. Two were big and strong, and appeared to be faring for themselves okay from the get-go.

But the littlest one, even though she’s feisty, gets a bit of supplemental feeding.

Zooey is mighty interested in that new lambchen

The forecast is for the weather to warm up and dry out a bit. As soon as it does, I’m back out into the garden. We took care of the deer problem last year. This year:  gophers, consider yourselves on notice. You’re not getting my carrots again!

The reason? Global crude use is soaring, while the most important oil wells on earth are rapidly depleting. We basically stopped finding conventional super-giant, high production rate oil fields forty years ago. Oil production has remained stubbornly flat regardless of price, as shown in this chart posted by Gail Tverberg at Our Finite World.

The oil supply shown above is “all liquids,” which includes unconventional sources including biofuels, extra heavy oil, tar sands, and natural gas liquids, as seen in this chart posted by Stuart Staniford at Early Warning.

“Crude plus condensate” on the right hand scale, other components of the liquid fuel stream on the left-hand scale.

Staniford notes that during the C&C plateau period since 2005, about 1 mpd in additional total supply has come from a long standing trend in the increase in natural gas liquids (NGPL), while another 1 mpd has come from “other liquids” (mainly biofuels).

These “other liquids” are not the same as crude oil. Natural gas liquids are not oil, and they contain only 65% of the BTU of oil. Biofuels are much worse. They are, at best, barely an energy source: rather, they are the product of a conversion process of other energy inputs. Taking into account energy returned on energy invested (EROEI) – the amount of energy required to extract, process, and deliver oil, natural gas liquids, unconventional oils, and biofuels – the world’s energy situation is much more dire than apparent from the gross “all liquids” production numbers. Even if “all liquids” production has still been rising – barely – the same can’t be said for net energy from liquid fuels.

High prices for crude means high prices for gasoline. Oil prices in 2011 averaged record highs, and 2012 isn’t looking to be any better as gasoline prices in the U.S. have never been higher this time of the year and are continuing to rise. No matter how much we might like to believe there’s a “solution” to high gasoline prices, there is very little government policies can do to deal with increasing demand for oil from Asia, or depleting oil reserves, or intractable conflicts in the Middle East and Africa.

Why do I bother to talk about oil supplies, when people say they much prefer to read about farm life: the ducks, the sheep, and the garden? It’s because the reality of peak oil is the driver behind this kind of life we have chosen to live, the main driver of the decisions we make. Peak oil means the end to the growth paradigm. However haltingly, we’re struggling to come to grips with this reality in our daily life.

Over a decade ago we began to think about disengaging from an oil-dependent lifestyle. We’re far from independent of oil, but we realize oil represents the past, not the future. So it seems silly to invest in new vehicles. For farm chores, our pre-WWII tractor will probably still be running even after the oil runs out.

1939 Ford 9N

We keep repairing our ’80s-vintage cars and ’70s vintage farm truck rather than replacing them. We drive as little as possible, fondly remembering the days we lived in the south of France where we get around almost entirely by foot and pedal power. Life has never been more glorious.

Sallèles d’Aude, “our” village in the south of France, by the Canal du Jonction

Sallèles d’Aude, street scene with pickup

We don’t take on debt, as haven’t now and don’t expect in the future to have any income to pay it back. We grow as much of our own food as we can, and as much as possible turn to neighbors for what we don’t or can’t. We rely on our own woodlot for heat.

We don’t take on debt, as haven’t now and don’t expect in the future to have any income to pay it back. We grow as much as our own food as we can, and as much as possible turn to neighbors for what we don’t or can’t. We rely on our own woodlot for heat.

We seem to not be alone in dis-investing in the automobile culture. Jazzbumpa at Angry Bear points to Department of Energy data showing vehicle ownership in the U.S., measured as vehicles (both cars and trucks) per 1000 population, peaked in 2007 at 843.57. It dropped by 1.88% to 828.04 in 2009. Nationmaster.com shows that the “most recent” value for the U.S. is 765 (though it’s not clear what “most recent” means). If this is accurate (which Jazzbumpa questions), then vehicle ownership has fallen off a cliff and is back to 1994 levels.¹ It is pretty clear that automobile ownership in the U.S. has peaked for good and is now going down rather than up.

Driving is down, too – both vehicle miles traveled and total miles driven. The Federal Highway Administration reports that last year, U.S. drivers logged 35.7 billion fewer miles than in 2010 — down 1.2%— to 2.963 trillion miles. That’s the fewest number of miles since Americans drove 2.890 trillion miles in 2003.

A drop in both vehicle ownership and vehicle miles traveled are indicators of a change in the way people are choosing to live in this world. Don’t be surprised when other indicators begin blinking, too. In our lifetime, we’ve come to expect to see GDP and other economic metrics always going up – after all, growth is normal, isn’t it? Perhaps growth will prove to not be normal, after all – and sooner than anyone thinks.

¹ he Census Bureau estimates the population of the U.S. as of January 2012 at about 312,780,000. The DOE’s Transportation Energy Data Books pegs the U.S. light vehicle fleet at 234,880,00 as of June 2011. Using those numbers results in a vehicle ownership rate of 751. A vehicle ownership rate of 765 may be too high, not too low.

A couple of weeks ago I mentioned that we were using a borrowed, home-made heat mat to start seeds. That worked out so well that we decided to add a permanent heat mat as a feature to the greenhouse.

First, a couple of problems surfaced that needed to be addressed. The borrowed heat mat was made by fastening heating  cables to the top of a used, stainless steel grass seed cleaning screen. The seedling trays are placed directly on top of the heating cables. Trouble is, the heat cables aren’t designed to be used this way – rather, they are designed to be placed in the bottom of a planter and then covered with soil. Also, the instructions warn against placing plastic trays (or anything flammable) directly on top of the cables. The bigger problem was that the thermostat that is build into the heating cables doesn’t work if it’s not immersed in soil, so the heating cables are “on” all the time. The soil in the seedling trays tended to get too hot and to dry out. In addition, the dimensions of the mat didn’t match the dimensions of the seedling trays, so  a lot of space was wasted. Only three trays could be placed on the mat at any one time, although room could be found for other six-pack containers and single 4? pots.

For our permanent mat, we purchased a 48? “Gro Quick” electric soil warming cable from our local Nichol’s Garden Nursery. We laid it out directly on the lower shelf of the greenhouse, in a pattern something like this (this example is from the included instructions).

Our layout had one more run, so the thermostat was on the other end from the power supply. Dimensions are 22? by 8?; just the right size to fit nine 10.5? x 21? seeding trays. At 2112 square inches, this is just a bit larger in area than the recommended 12 square feet (1728 square inches) for the 48? cable. We then buried the cable and thermostat in sand, and covered everything with six stainless steel screens we picked up from Burcham’s Metals for a mere $6.30.

With our friends’ permission, we also set about to reconstruct and reconfigure the borrowed heat map. Since we wanted this one to be portable, we laid the cable out on a 21? x 74? piece of ½” exterior plywood – exactly the right size to hold seven seedling trays (we were limited to 74? in length because that’s the length of the plywood scrap we had). We glued plywood strips around the edges; six more strips across the width formed individual”compartments” within the overall length. We filled the compartments with sand, burying the cable and the thermostat; then stapled a sheet of scrap aluminum sheeting on top, running a bead of caulk along the edges and across the divider strips to prevent any sand leaking out.

The area of this mat, at 1554 square inches, is a little less than the 1728 square inches recommended for a 48? cable; consequently, it’s proving to be a little warmer than our larger, permanent installation.

Here are both heat mats, with a couple of seedling trays removed to show how they were put together.

And here’s the whole set-up in action.

As you can see, the seedlings are thriving. And funny enough, we’re out of room on the heat mats already. Two weeks ago, we had none. Then again, a year ago we would wait until March to begin starting most seeds.

Hmm, Cory says she has yet another homemade heat mat that would benefit from being rebuilt . . .

The Federal Highway Administration’s Traffic Volume Trends reports travel on U.S. roads and streets was up 1.3% for December  2011 as compared with December 2010. Cumulative travel for 2011 was down 1.2% from 2010.

In the early ’80s, VMT (moving 12 months total) stayed below the previous peak for 39 months. Currently VMT (moving 12 months total) has been below the previous peak for 49 months – more than 4 years – and the trend shows no sign of reversing any time soon as VMT remains way below the previous peak.

In Oregon, vehicle miles traveled (VMT) was down 0.1% in December 2011 compared to December 2010. Cumulative VMT for 2011 was down 1.8% from 2010. VMT in Oregon was down every month in 2011 compared to 2010.

Gas prices are a big part of the story. Oil prices in 2011 averaged record highs. Gasoline prices followed, never dipping below $3/gallon – as seen in this chart from Gas Buddy.

2012 doesn’t look to be any better. Gasoline prices have never been higher this time of the year in the U.S. At $3.53 a gallon, prices are up 25 cents since Jan. 1 as crude oil prices have advanced to a nine-month high. Analysts are forecasting prices could reach a record $4.25 a gallon by late April. Gas prices typically rise in March and April, as demand increases as driving increases. In addition, summertime gasoline is more expensive to make. And there’s a wild card: energy analysts warn the risks to global oil supplies are greater than at any time in the past 30 years.

What passes for political “discourse” over stubbornly high gas prices will not even hint at the actual causes – the plateauing of global crude oil production since 2005.  High gas prices despite economic weakness in the developed countries vindicates those in the peak oil community who’ve been predicting for a number of years that once production plateaued, whenever the economy starts to improve oil prices will tend to increase and begin to choke off any “recovery”. But don’t expect any politician to acknowledge the new reality – at least not in public. To do so would be political death.